Breeders Crown analysis and selections

Thoughts and picks across Saturday’s eight Breeders Crown finals.

by Brett Sturman

RACE 2: $548,000 OPEN MARES TROT

ELISTA HANOVER was all the rage a few months ago with some monster miles at The Meadowlands and even though things have settled a little since then, she still may be better than recent lines show. She was actually flying from an impossible trip in that Dayton race at the end of September, and in a small-field qualifier where it didn’t look like anyone was trying too hard, it’s still worth noting that she was always a couple lengths to the good of top male trotter, Periculum. WARRAWEE MICHELLE is intimately familiar with the top choice, and she continues to fire top-notch efforts in every race. It’s a hugely deceptive camera angle on the finish at The Red Mile because I could have sworn she held off DATE NIGHT HANOVER last out in their Allerage race but evidently lost by a nose. For Date Night Hanover, she was able to beat Warrawee Michelle after inheriting a mainly 2-hole ride after Nelsonbriteagle No gapped for a period from the pocket and used that to score in a career best time of 1:49.2. M-M’s DREAM upset at 27-1 in a lifetime best time of 1:49.4 on Hambletonian Day and hasn’t looked back since, being first or second in every race since then and is another that’s not out of the question at all with the trip. CALL ME GOO has now come up short two straight times as the favorite and moves second to the outside; at least will offer a price now and I sense she’ll be going forward early. BRAVO ANGEL got a well-deserved win against these on Sept. 5 and is capable of flying finishes.

Selections: Elista Hanover, Warrawee Michelle, Call Me Goo

RACE 3: $548,000 OPEN MARES PACE

Familiar scene here where it’s going to come down to TWIN B JOE FRESH at 1-5 or 1-9 or trying to beat her with SYLVIA HANOVER at what I’ll guess will be 3-1. All three of the losses this year for Twin B Joe Fresh have come at the hands of Sylvia Hanover so it’s not impossible for it to happen again, but Twin B Joe Fresh has been all business since returning off the month layoff in the Milton, where she’s won three straight, two of which have been sub-1:48. Even for those looking for options in the exotics, you have to go all the way back to July 20 to find a race where both Twin B Joe Fresh and Sylvia Hanover were in the same race and did not comprise the exacta. KOBE’S GIGI hasn’t generally been too far off against these this year and lands a much-improved post from where she began in two different September races over this track. MY GIRL EJ continues to do her best against this group but remains winless on the season as a 4-year-old. Credit to Austin Hanners making a winning first impression here last week in the F&M open with ALWAYS B NAUGHTY who came first-over against Sylvia Hanover who was in need of a breather after being hard used to the top, went by and held together for the huge upset.

Selections: Twin B Joe Fresh, Sylvia Hanover, My Girl EJ

RACE 4: $910,365 3-YEAR-OLD FILLY TROT

Most of the wagering action figures to be between the elimination winners but how about giving a look to R DUTCHESS as an upset call. That disqualification in the Elegantimage really was unfortunate and in my opinion undeserving, and she continues to race consistently well. She was right there in that :26.4 final quarter two back in the Filly Futurity with winner Delaney Hanover, came home last week with the co-fastest final quarter in her elimination from an unwinnable spot and finally gets away from three straight post 9’s – I’ll take a swing. DELANEY HANOVER has been razor sharp for the last couple of months now and looks for her fifth straight score; absolutely flew home in her elimination win last week in a final quarter that was easily the fastest of anyone in that race. YO TILLIE rebounded to win her elimination last week following her first defeat of the season two back at the hands of Delaney Hanover at The Red Mile and she’ll get another shot at that nemesis in tonight’s Breeders Crown final; super matchup coming. Supplemental entry STORMONT BEAUTIFUL ended up with a really nice trip last week and did her best to try to close into Yo Tillie but wasn’t getting there fast enough. STASH SOME CASH set an honest clip in her elimination and did well to hold off everyone except for the impressive winner. WALSPEA keeps McNair. MONALISHI wasn’t bad last out with cover but was another outkicked by Delaney Hanover.

Selections: R Dutchess, Delaney Hanover, Yo Tillie

RACE 5: $822,000 3-YEAR-OLD FILLY PACE

MIKI AND MINNIE won her Breeders Crown elimination last week in a track and Canadian record performance and has been dominant in almost every start this year. She had the trip last week and was never really clear by too many but it was also her first race in over a month; Fan Hanover winner from here earlier in the year looks to add another Grade 1 win to her resume in what’s been a terrific season. UNREASONABLE was solid last week in her elimination. 1:47.4 Garnsey winner two back took action last out off that mile and was doing well to make up some late ground to Miki And Minnie; not without a chance from a nice 2-hole draw. THE LAST MARTINI opted for a bye into the final and hasn’t been well positioned in her last pair; could be a spot where the NYSS winner puts in a surprise. RODEO DRIVE DEO is one of only two fillies this year to beat Miki And Minnie when she did so in a race at Pocono early in the summer; the post in this race seems to be the biggest obstacle for this year’s Jugette champion. Similarly, the post proved too much last week for CHANTILLY and she gets the worst of it once again; I do think she’ll be closer though this time around with the money on the line. FAZE tried her to best to fight on last week against Miki And Minnie and was only two lengths down in the end. SKYWALKER SEA outraced her odds last week.

Selections: Miki And Minnie, The Last Martini, Unreasonable

RACE 6: $822,000 3-YEAR-OLD COLT TROT

For a group where the top few have been tightly bunched all year, EMOTICON LEGACY has established himself as the division’s best over the course of the past month. Between a seven-length win in the Simcoe at the end of August and then a three-length win last month in the Canadian Trotting Classic, he’s won his last two races here at Woodbine Mohawk Park by over 10 lengths. His win in the Futurity when overcoming post 10 through fractions where he would have had every right to give way, he kept finding and went on to hold off familiar foes in 1:49.2. It could happen, but he would need to regress to not win this. It’s hard to believe that 2-year-old champion MARYLAND has banked $670,000 at age 3 yet enters his Breeders Crown final still winless on the season. He couldn’t get closer than a couple of lengths two back when trying to close first-over into Emoticon Legacy here in the CTC but was making up the ground late last out in the Futurity while picking up Gingras for the first time. Gingras will get the return call and if the trip works out maybe this is where the Hambletonian favorite can finally break through. SUPER CHAPTER has been right there in every major race this year and like #3 is also over $2 million already in career earnings. He did lack some room temporarily behind Emoticon Legacy in the Futurity but was only even once he did have clearance from the pocket; suffered a surprise defeat two back at the hands of Warrior and just feel like he may have been sharper earlier. GO DOG GO lands post 10, just as he did in the Hambletonian. A 1:49.3 winner two back, he tired last out when going first over in the Futurity; McCarthy’s hand will be forced early once again. MR MOUTON gets a new driver in MacDonald and has speed; equaled his career best last out.

Selections: Emoticon Legacy, Maryland, Mr Mouton

RACE 7: $822,000 OPEN TROT

With each passing race the drums continue to get louder for a Horse of the Year award for LEXUS KODY and a win in tonight’s Breeders Crown would go a long way to aid that cause. On the heels of four straight major stakes wins beginning with the Maple Leaf Trot final on Aug. 30, he somehow went off last week in his elimination at above even money and won without much anxiety. Those wins have shown a combination of grit and dramatics and will need his best once again. PERICULUM was defeated here by Lexus Kody in both the Maple Leaf Trot elimination and finals, though was just able to surge late from a perfect second-over trip and force a dead-heat with that rival in the Caesars Trotting Classic at Hoosier in September; has only been worse than second a single time all year through nine starts. FRENCH WINE has been excellent in his last three races since moving barns to Nancy Taker and took a ton of play last week in that Breeders Crown elimination. Despite best efforts and trip, he couldn’t get to within a length of Lexus Kody in the end; closed well two and three back. HILLEXOTIC established a track record earlier this year at The Meadows and has early speed; driver Austin Hanners pulled a shocker on debut here last week in the mares open pace.

Selections: Periculum, Lexus Kody, Hillexotic

RACE 8 $822,000 3-YEAR-OLD COLT PACE

I wouldn’t be too hard on, nor read too much into the first defeat of the year for LOUPRINT that came in last week’s Breeders Crown elimination. He didn’t leave hard off the gate but he’s raced that way on occasion this year, and despite the trip where he only briefly saw the pylons and was parked uncovered most of the race, he was still gathering himself through the stretch with a relentless late surge to just miss. Will have to overcome an outside post of course but Wrenn should leave lesser to chance now. DANDY IDEAL was the one who slayed Louprint last week at odds of 6-1 who was able to pounce at the right time and win as the cleaner-tripped horse; will be moving forward early once again from the same post 5. You could do worse than Pelling and Dunn at a 25-1 morning line with FUSION from post 10. That one couldn’t reach from the pocket last out against a well-rated winner but that mile two back in the Tattersalls was fascinating. He broke for at least a few strides before Dunn was able to get him started all over again and almost won when the top two came back after a sub 1:20 fraction. PRINCE HAL HANOVER lands a much-improved post for his Crown final than he did here earlier in the year for the North America Cup; elimination winner is one of the obvious main contenders. The trendy pick here may land on SIPPINONSEAROC who after sitting in last week from well back initially, was able to move out, grab cover, and fly home in :25 flat to be closing from a no-chance position. NA Cup hero MADDEN OAKS switched last out to Roy and was grinding away through the stretch to not miss by much. CAPTAIN OPTIMISTIC was decent late in his elimination when angling off the inside and closing widest.

Selections: Louprint, Captain Optimistic, Dandy Ideal

RACE 9: $822,000 OPEN PACE

The Open Pace remains ultra-competitive, and I’ll give ERVIN HANOVER the tepid call, having not lost since a narrow defeat here in the Canadian Pacing Derby on Aug. 30. Since then, he’s won races in three-consecutive 1:47.2 identical clocking’s and then last week continued to find victory when it didn’t look likely with even a sixteenth-of-a-mile to go. He somehow continues to find and looks to make his mark on the division with a Breeders Crown win. NIJINKSY looked to have Ervin Hanover measured last week in his elimination and although nailed, remains first or second in seven out of his eight tries on the year; remains a prime contender. CAPTAIN ALBANO looked like he may have had room to angle from the pocket last week but couldn’t, then lacked room to the inside before finding clearance there too late; could take money tonight off that trip. KEN HANOVER was the other elimination winner for this division last week and did so with what looked like a “grinding” final quarter after popping the pocket by three-quarters that actually resulted in a time of :24.4; wow. That 1:47.3 was a career best and he should be able to work out a nice trip from post 2. CALICOJACK HANOVER is a better horse than I think people give credit to; was just 7-5 to Nijinsky three back and could surprise. OAKWOOD ARDAN IR closed from an impossible spot last week and has already shocked against these earlier in the year at The Meadowlands. COACHES CORNER had similar road troubles behind Captain Albano last week and wasn’t bad at odds of over 50-1. COACH STEFANOS is another that can beat these if he’s at his best and gets the setup. MAXIMUS MIKI is to be considered though I never guess right on him.

Selections: Ervin Hanover, Calicojack Hanover, Captain Albano