Artie and me go shopping, Part 5
Artie in action.
by Trey Nosrac
Part 1 ishere.
Part 2 ishere.
Part 3 is here.
Part 4 is here.
Before the Ohio Selected Jug Sale, Trey chose a yearling and headed to the sales ring for part of an experiment. There was no particular reason for the choice. Trey did not enter the bidding but wrote an evaluation and predicted how much the yearling would sell for. Then Trey requested that artificial intelligence evaluate this yearling and what he would sell for. He placed the information in a file. After the sale, he opened the file.
A case for 257 by Trey.
Have you scanned an extensive catalog and stumbled across a yearling page that sticks in your mind? Subsequent readings through the catalog feel like a magnetic force is pulling you. We make a case when there is not really a solid case. We become emotionally and subliminally involved. For some strange reason, this pull happened to me with Hip #257, Dublins Estelle.
TREY’S THOUGHTS:
• Mom was solid, not spectacular.
• Of course, mom has not had a chance to produce anything yet.
• Wishing Stone, the dam’s sire, is one of my all-time favorites.
• What The Hill is a solid stallion, but is not a spring chicken.
• The second and third dams are eight of 17 in getting horses to the starting gate.
• Jujubee appears to have fallen from a conjurer in the sky.
• Without Jujubee, the earnings on the page are a pittance.
• Without Jujubee, going way back, there is no big speed or earner.
• I could barely find 56 speeds, not the 54 needed today for tip level.
• Everything hinges on the Jujubee factor, not a math factor, because without this superstar, you have a family that does not make any appreciable money.
I believe more than one bidder will find the name Jujubee irresistible, and this yearling will sell high, so I pick the sales price as $30K.
How about you, Artie?
ARTIE REPLIED:
“A summation of my evaluation on Sept. 12 for Hip #257 Dublins Estelle (trotting filly), combining pedigree + sale comps + what I can glean from the video. I’ve kept pricing grounded in last year’s Ohio sale data so you can show your readers the ‘why’ behind the numbers.
Hip #257 Dublins Estelle (trotting, filly)
Sire: What The Hill, Dam: Canterawishing (by Wishing Stone)
Consignor: Dublin Valley Farm, Eligible: Ohio and Buckeye Bonus
PLUSSES
• Program fit + sire value: What The Hill is a productive Ohio trotting sire; his 2024 Ohio Jug Sale average was $24,659 across 22 sold, a strong middle-tier anchor in this market.
• Market context favors her bracket: Trotting fillies averaged $28,865 at the 2024 sale (overall sale average $29,444), so this category is well-bid.
• From your catalog page, she’s out of Canterawishing (Wishing Stone—Cantab Hall family). That maternal cross has produced serious trotters in Ohio; the presence of Cantab Hall on the page bolsters reliability and resale/broodmare value.
• Dual eligibility (Ohio + Buckeye Bonus): Creates multiple paths to place and earn even if she’s a ‘developing’ 2YO.
MINUSES / WATCH-OUTS
• Video-dependent verdict: First foal of modest immediate dam production typically pushes buyers to lean heavily on how she moves. (We’ll tighten the ceiling if the video shows knee paddling, forging, or short reach in front).
• Sire perception variance: While What The Hill sells well, some buyers still prefer Long Tom / In Range fillies so that bidding heat can swing by hip.
• Video notes (from sample review):
• Lead/tempo looks consistent through the jog line and turns; head carriage appears steady (no ‘on/off’ bridle feel) in the stills above.
• Frame reads medium for an April foal; no obvious offset knees or sickle hocks jump out in the thumbnails provided.
• I’ll refine these with specific gait/stride comments once the full-motion upload is finalized (e.g., overstep measure, diagonal timing, straightness away/toward camera).
PRICE AND COMPARABLE
• Sire anchor: What The Hill average at the 2024 Ohio Jug = $24,659 (22 sold).
• Anchor: Trotting fillies average at the 2024 Ohio Jug = $28,865.
• Overall feel: Dublin Valley routinely presents sale-ready stock and drew solid money in 2024 (sale summary supports a healthy marketplace).
• My bidding guidance (for Trey)
• Low estimate: $18,000-$22,000
• Expected range: $22,000-$30,000.
• Stretch ceiling (if more footage shows good reach behind, straight in front, confident presence). • Why this ceiling? It sits just above the sire’s recent Ohio average and a tick over the trotting filly average.
My price estimate is $24,000 (in line with TF avg and sire avg).”
Trey predicted a sales price of $30K, and Artie landed at $24K. The sale results? Yearling #257 sold for $22K. Artie gets the nod in the first round.
Experiments require multiple test runs. Here is a condensed recap of another yearling Hip #2.
TREY WROTE:
“Hip #2 is a hot new sire, a first foal. She has some depth in the pedigree, and looks good to me in the video. I like this filly, but she might take a hit for being so early in the sale. My number is $30K.”
ARTIE REPLIED:
“Based on the framework built, my single-number prediction for yearling #2 at the Ohio Select Sale is $38K. That figure came from splitting the middle of the working range ($28K-$42K), leaning slightly upward because of the early Hip placement and likely extra ring attention.”
Trey’s price was $30K, and Artie’s was $38K. The sale results? Yearling #2 sold for $22,000. Trey gets the nod (and I think someone got a good deal on this filly).
Additional price prediction test results:
Hip #25: Trey was $19K, and Artie was $30K. Neither was close; the yearling sold for $5K.
Hip #76: Trey was at $29K, Artie $39K. The yearling sold for $50K.
Hip #259: Trey $35K, Artie $45K. The yearling sold for $51K.
The little experiment was fun. Trey will run some additional tests. What is not fun is squinting and looking into the future.
Today, human involvement in the strange little world of purchasing harness racing stock is fun. We all have our formulas that might lead to the winner’s circle. In our midst are clever people who can give artificial intelligence a run for its money in our small world of selecting the most promising future harness race horses, but humans will not remain competitive.
In this crude little experiment, the future was troubling. Artie supplied other information in evaluating yearlings and is always open to new data, such as additional videos, vet reports, in-depth pedigrees, trainer information, and goodness knows what else. Artie can update his evaluation with every tidbit uploaded. It is not difficult to imagine the day that AI will ask for a full body scan, genetic marking, bone density testing, x-rays, and data that normal people cannot even spell. It is not hard to imagine that AI could take 500 yearlings in a sale and evaluate each one.
People shrug and say, “That will never happen. Nobody knows what is in the brain or the heart of a yearling. These are just sales prices; the actual test is how these yearlings perform on the track.” That is absolutely true, but artificial intelligence is working on it, working every minute of every day. Artie will get more intelligent, humans, not so much, and we will be less fulfilled in a world filled with Arties.
Next week, a hard conversation.
