Plenty of questions heading into loaded Meadowlands Pace night
The stakes-laden card looks to be a major factor in determining how divisions will play out this year.
by Brett Sturman
Even more than usual it seems this year’s Meadowlands Pace and supporting stakes-laden undercard has the potential to set in motion how many of the divisions may play out for the foreseeable future. Not all of these will be answered in finality on Saturday (July 12), but here are some burning questions to be asked in advance of the big night of over $2.5 million in stakes.
WHO WILL WIN THE MEADOWLANDS PACE?
Starting right off with the question of the night and the race of the night, the complexion of the race changed earlier this week when news broke on the eve of the draw for the remainder of the card — the Pace was drawn live on air on Saturday (July 5) — that the reigning divisional champion, Pepsi North America Cup winner, and sports #1 ranked horse Louprint underwent an emergency procedure on Monday and would not be in the Meadowlands Pace.
Estimating that Louprint would have gone off as the odds-on favorite somewhere around 3-5, the race in the remaining field of nine now becomes wide open. And at the same time, a couple of the top contenders look shakier than they did a month ago. It’s now a race that nearly anyone can win.
In a tough break of luck, Madden Oaks drew the outside post for his second straight signature 3-year-old race (North America Cup). Despite that, along with being dismissed in the NA Cup at odds of over 50-1, he’s now amazingly been installed as the 5-2 morning line Pace favorite. It’s deserved, but shows how much things can change in a short time.
Madden Oaks burst onto the scene with that remarkable NA Cup elimination try and then followed that up by putting a serious inside scare into Louprint as those two dueled through the stretch in the NA Cup final. Just as that trip from post 10 couldn’t have possibly worked out any better, his road to the top from post 9 in the Pace may not be much different. I’d imagine that a couple drivers noticing the void of early speed in the NA Cup could be more inclined to take an early chance now, but it doesn’t look like it’s going to come from either of the two immediately to Madden Oaks’ inside. You know that driver Braxten Boyd is going to be both confident and aggressive; does the public make him the eventual favorite over let’s say the more well-known connections of Captain Optimistic?
Captain Optimistic, who was a top 2-year-old and Governor’s Cup winner here last year, was well positioned in the NA Cup final a month ago when only missing by a length-and-a-half but it just didn’t seem visually that he fired his effort. He returned last week in a “prep” race at The Meadowlands and wound up third. I know that race didn’t carry much meaning, but to see the others in that short field all closing in despite him being rated kindly through a half-mile of just :55.1, it’s tough to know what to make of him.
Similar questions for Fallout, who looks to give driver Tetrick his seventh Pace win. Last year’s Metro winner went a tough trip in his NA Cup elimination and missed the final. He since came back to win in 1:49.1 over a 4-year-old rival and was trying hard last week with a :26 final quarter to get close in the prep race when finishing down a couple of lengths. It’s still early in the year, but his 2-year-old mark from last year remains faster than any of his 3-year-old race times thus far. Prince Hal Hanover entered the NA Cup final in razor sharp form but curiously changed tactics that race and was never involved. He since went in 1:48.2 at Mohawk that included blitzing a third panel and it looks like he’ll be receiving a new driver for the Pace.
Coming back to the question at hand, my pick to win the Pace is going to be Papis Pistol. One of the longer chances in Canada last month, he may have the best form, along with the rail position, coming into this race. A 1:49.3 Kindergarten winner here at 2, he returned last week and won that prep comfortably when coming through an inside opening in a time of 1:49.1. Two back, he won in 1:48 in a 3-year-old open at Mohawk and he seems just as capable to win as anyone else as Dave Miller gets the return call.
WHO WILL EMERGE AS HAMBLETONIAN FAVORITES?
Absent Emoticon Legacy (which is a big notable), almost all other major Hambletonian contenders will be racing in two splits of the Stanley Dancer Memorial. Super Chapter is currently rated as the top contender in Hambletonian rankings published by The Meadowlands, and it’ll be interesting to see if he can race up to his billing in making his first start back at The Big M since finishing second to Monserrate in last year’s Valley Victory. Super Chapter is unbeaten this year through three starts, but honestly, he couldn’t have had it any easier in trips at Vernon and Yonkers. The Dancer will be a better indication for him of what’s to come.
In the race, he’ll rematch with Monserrate who was at a tactical disadvantage when Super Chapter beat him three back at Yonkers. Monserrate enters the race off an easy win at The Meadowlands last out against lesser, but looked very good in doing so, along with that :26.3 final quarter. Also in the field is Gap Kronos who won his Reynolds division at The Meadowlands last out tying a career best time of 1:51.4, besting another good 3-year-old Nordic Catcher S in the process. The field also includes New Jersey Sires Stakes champion Hidalgo as well as Dexter Cup winner Hard Seven; can either of those step up into the main group of contenders.
The second Dancer Memorial division is just as stacked. I’ll go on record right now in saying that Go Dog Go is my Hambletonian pick. He’s picked right up this year where he finished last season when he came on so strong at the end and couldn’t have been more impressive in either of his starts to begin this season. Last out at The Meadowlands in the Reynolds, he came into the race nicely from post 9 and stormed past everyone as pleased in the races final stages to establish a career best mark of 1:52. He’ll meet up Saturday with the Dan Patch champion Maryland.
Maryland has come back in two starts thus far with much better tries than the prior qualifiers indicated, and both runner-up finishes have been solid considering the uphill type of trips he went against both Super Chapter and Emoticon Legacy. Last year’s Breeders Crown runner-up by a neck, Maximus Mearas S will make his first start of the year in the Dancer and is another with high Hambletonian aspirations. And though not racing Saturday, Hambletonian prospects Mr Mouton and to a lesser extent Mountcastle race tonight (July 11) at The Meadowlands in a conditioned race and are worth noting too.
IS THE HAMBLETONIAN MATURITY THE BEST WAGERING RACE OF THE YEAR?
Simply answered, with 13 horses going a mile-and-an-eighth, how can it not be? Going as race 9, two races before the Meadowlands Pace, the Hambletonian Maturity has the potential to produce serious pari-mutuel fireworks.
I recall there being some 12-horse fields at The Meadowlands, but I can’t remember ever being 13 either here or anywhere in North America for that matter. Elista Hanover comes into the race having gone a remarkable trip last week in the Graduate final when eventually coming up just short to Warrawee Michelle, the mare who will start immediately to her inside on Saturday.
Private Access, who was beaten in the Graduate for the first time this year will likely go off as the race favorite starting from an inside post and I’d think that driver Louis-Philippe Roy will want him away from any race confusion and have him right on the front. In addition to Private Access, owner Determination and trainer Luc Blais also send down Emoji Hanover and Drawn Impression.
The race also includes the mercurial Highland Kismet who actually stayed trotting last week but endured a tough first-over trip when parked moving to the lead – he’ll suddenly offer a square price this time around. Gruesome Twosome, who is a relatively new addition to the Nancy Takter barn, has been well supported in all recent tries in the Graduate but now moves out to post 10 and in a field like this, that will ensure a much higher price too. Date Night Hanover has the potential to close from well back and is sure to offer odds well into the double digits. The possibilities seem endless and the payouts in the exotics from this race could be massive.
