It’s rare that stallion prospects race at 4, but these are the ones that have done it best in the 21^st century.

by Brett Sturman

Last week’s column by Debbie Little about the increasing number of horses sent off to the breeding shed following their 3-year-old season — and the arguable extent to which it impacts racing — got me thinking. How prevalent have 4-year-old stallions been in the picture of the older division over the course of this century?

Over the past 25 years for sure, and possibly all-time, the best 4-year-old season by a stallion occurred just two years ago when Bulldog Hanover had a recording-setting campaign. The first ever unanimous Horse of the Year, he broke the 1:46 speed barrier in the course of a never-ending string of devastatingly strong performances.

In looking at the trending dynamics of more of the elite 3-year-olds retiring early, Bulldog Hanover is probably a good reflection of what a top 4-year-old profile would look like. In his case, Bulldog Hanover was at the higher end of his 3-year-old division, but he wasn’t the best. In Canada where he won stakes such as the Somebeachsomewhere and a North America Cup elimination, he lost O’Brien Award honors that year to NA Cup winner Desperate Man. But Bulldog Hanover showed enough promise while winning over a half million dollars and taking a mark of 1:48 at Hoosier, that it wasn’t a surprise he was able to get even stronger when coming back to race at 4.

In addition to Bulldog Hanover winning the older divisional honors as a 4-year-old stallion, it’s happened five other times on the pacing side since 2000. That list includes Bettor’s Wish in 2020, but then you must go all the way back in 2007 to when it was won by Mister Big, preceded by Lis Mara in 2006, Art Major in 2003 and Real Desire in 2002. The trotters will show a different story, but on the pacing side one could surmise that indeed it has been rare for 4-year-old pacing stallions to excel in the older division in recent years.

Bettor’s Wish was a Dan Patch winner as a 3-year-old too, when he was, incredibly, never worse than second in 19 starts while taking a mark of 1:47.4 and earning over $1.6 million. That season was only five years ago, so it’s tough to say that if fast-forwarded to today, the environment has changed that dramatically where he would have been retired and not given the chance to prove himself even more as a 4-year-old.

Where things almost certainly would have been different, though, is going back to the days of Art Major, who like Bettor’s Wish, was also a 3-year-old champion. And, for that matter, I would include Real Desire who, although he didn’t win the division as a 3-year-old, established impeccable credentials while dueling with famed rival Bettors Delight in a sophomore season where both individually earned over $1.6 million. Placing Art Major or Real Desire in today’s climate, they likely would have retired after 3 and wouldn’t have had the opportunity to continue with their success on the track as 4-year-olds.

On the other hand are Mister Big and Lis Mara, two horses that got to know each other well in the older pacing ranks. As a 3-year-old, Lis Mara wasn’t particularly special – certainly not to the extent of what he became at 4. In his 3-year-old season, he banked just over $175,000 as a marginal stakes player, having won a Confederation Cup elimination and was second in the Simcoe. But like Mister Big who came the very following year, he was an example of the unpredictability of 3-year-olds that will occasionally step up massively as 4-year-old stallions.

As a 3-year-old Mister Big won just three times from 16 starts, earning over $275,000 with a mark of 1:49.2. Though, towards the end of that season, he was clearly trending in the right direction when he won his Breeders Crown elimination, was second in the final trained that year by Tim Pinske, and then continued to excel from there as he went to Virgil Morgan.

Interestingly, the converse can be found with the trotters. On that side, more of the 4-year-old stallion champions have come relatively recently. That list includes Winner’s Bet — who hasn’t yet formally won this year’s award but is a lock to do so when it’s formally announced — Gimpanzee from 2020, Six Pack from 2019, Marion Marauder in 2017, Chapter Seven in 2012, and Rotation back from 2003.

The best 4-year-old season from that list was Chapter Seven who amassed over $1 million in just 10 starts, winning eight times and being second in the other two. Chapter Seven used that season to further establish himself following a 3-year-old season in which he was lightly raced with only 10 starts also. He has gone onto be one of the most prolific trotting sires in the breed.

Though he didn’t win the Dan Patch as a 3-year-old, Gimpanzee certainly had established high enough credentials in battling it out with Greenshoe and still earning over $1 million as a sophomore where he could have retired with substantial breeding value if it was elected for him to do so. But he continued to race as a 4-year-old, where he came less than $20,000 shy of another million-dollar season and taking a trotting mark of 1:50.

Jeff Gural referenced his horse, Six Pack, in that column last week as an example of continuing to race a top stallion prospect as a 4-year-old. And he’s right. Six Pack proved to be exceptionally fast as a 3-year-old, being a Kentucky Futurity winner in a world record time of 1:49.1. And then as a 4-year-old, Six Pack continued to bolster his credentials by grinding out back-to-back divisional awards in a gritty campaign.

Like the pacing stallions, the current breeding market for trotters certainly gives incentive for the very best prospects to retire where they’ll offer peak value as 3-year-olds. If and when exceptional 4-year-old stallions do emerge, it’s more likely that they’d take on the profile of a lesser proven or lightly raced 3-year-old such as a Mister Big, Lis Mara or Chapter Seven. The odds of seeing stellar 3-year-olds like Art Major, Real Desire or, even more recently, Bettor’s Wish, continue to race the following season with an immediate breeding opportunity on the table does seem greatly diminished, as lesser foreseen horses will need to step up and fill the void.