by Brett Sturman 

Only in time will it be determined how this year’s crop of 2-year-old pacers ranks historically against some of the other best crops, but one thing more near and certain is that on paper, this group is on pace to go down as the fastest in history.

Still in August — essentially just the second month of actual racing for the 2-year-olds — three horses have already won in under a time of 1:50. “The Big Three” include American Son, Louprint and, suddenly, the all-time fastest 2-year-old ever, Sippinonsearoc, who won in 1:48.2 two races ago. For comparison, there were only three 2-year-olds all season long just a few years ago, in 2020, that went in under 1:50.

The numbers for making the case as this year’s group is set to become the fastest ever go well beyond the number of 2-year-olds that have paced in under 1:50. Last year in 2023 there were seven different 2-year-olds that went that fast, in 2022 there were a record 10 freshmen that went in under 1:50, and before all is said and done this year’s group may surpass that too.

But looking at the bigger picture, last year according to the USTA’s Top Performers statistics there were nine horses with a time of 1:51.2 that rounded out their top 50 list (tied 41st through 50th). A time of 1:51.2 was also the cutoff two years ago, and prior to that in 2021 and 2020, the top 50 cutoffs were both times of 1:51.4. With the 50th fastest 2-year-old this year already having posted a time of 1:52.0, how low can the group go?

As has been the trend with speed that only seems to somehow keep accelerating, what are some of the factors contributing to this year’s fast group? Is it a function of the breed or favorable racing conditions? I think it’s a factor of both.

To start, many of the fastest 2-year-old times this year have been taken at The Red Mile. And maybe it’s just me, but with the evolution of the Kentucky Sire Stakes program and the increased quality due to how KYSS eligibility is determined, there seems to be an inordinate number of stakes raced compared to what’s been raced traditionally. With what seems like about 70 races a day since the middle of July that includes Kentucky Fair Stakes, Kentucky Championship legs, Kentucky Sire Stakes legs, Golden Rod, Commonwealth and Wildcat legs and maybe others I’m missing – just the sheer number of these races in 82-degree weather on The Red Mile strip is naturally going to produce fast times.

But to pin the fast times on just The Red Mile would be selling the rest of the crop way short. Taking that track out of the equation for a moment, there have already been seven separate winners this year that have won in under 1:51 on a five-eighths-mile track. Do you know how many there were that did that in all of last year? Just one! That’s a truly remarkable testament to how successful this year’s group has been on the five-eighths-mile track’s, almost exclusively to the performances being seen in Pennsylvania and their stakes program. That state is seeing the results of a potential new super-sire or two, as well as established sires having ever-continuing success.

Last year, Lyon’s Legend was that lone pacer that went in under 1:51 on a five-eighths track with a record time of 1:50.2. That mark was eclipsed a couple weeks ago by TH Colby who won in 1:50.1 at The Meadows, and then was equaled this past weekend by the filly Rose who won at that same track in 1:50.2. A sidenote to that race was that Rose became the first filly this year to beat fellow 2-year-old filly sensation, Papi Grad. I realize that keeping a horse’s unbeaten streak intact is the absolute least of a trainer’s concerns, but it was still anti-climactic seeing Papi Grad essentially concede defeat at the start to Rose by getting away seventh and last in that PASS competition. It would have been a good battle between those two fillies had she tried, though I’m sure that race will be just the first of many those two will see together.

As somewhat of a paradox, it feels like the faster the times go, they also seem to hold less relevance as it pertains to handicapping and automatically assuming that a record time makes the best horse.

As one example, Sippinonsearoc set the all-time speed mark for 2-year-olds on Aug. 13 when he won in 1:48.2. When he raced next out on Aug. 25 this past Sunday, he wasn’t even favored. That distinction went to fellow Burke stablemate Louprint, who proved the betting public right and delivered as the odds-on favorite in a time of 1:49.1. Burke had been quoted after Louprint’s prior win in PA as him being maybe the best colt he’s seen in a long time and that may have contributed to the outpouring of wagering support for the horse.

Another similar example is the horse TH Colby, also a Burke trainee. He won two races ago at The Meadows in a time of 1:50.1, fastest of any horse this year on a track less than a mile size. But next out at Harrah’s Philadelphia, this past weekend, he could only finish fourth in a field of six and, like the other instance from above, he wasn’t favored either.

For as fast as many of these horses have already been, so many of the best 2-year-old races remain. The formal Grand Circuit meet at The Red Mile doesn’t even kick off for another couple of weeks, all the sire stake championships from everywhere remain, the Metro eliminations and final at Woodbine Mohawk Park are still a few weeks away too. Not to mention The Meadowlands about to start again, with that track also hosting the Breeders Crown this year along with their traditional 2-year-old pacing stakes with the Governor’s Cup and Three Diamonds.

The fast times seen thus far may just be a preview of what’s to come in the late summer and fall campaign of the 2-year-old season. At this rate, the group may not only be the fastest which all seems assured, but maybe one of the best freshmen crops ever.