The big gamble
by Trey Nosrac
BLACK SCREEN TO IRIS FADE IN.
INTERIOR:
EVENING:
Return to a low-rent tavern. Yellowish lighting. Sparsely populated. Two 60-ish males sit on adjoining bar stools facing the mirror behind the colorful liquor bottles on the shelves. The camera is on the backs of two unnamed men and will remain the primary shot for the entire scene. Although we do not directly see their faces, we see them over their shoulders, reflected in the mirror behind the rows of liquor bottles, and we toggle back and forth to their faces as they speak.
One man is short and stocky with a fringe of greying hair around a shiny dome. He is wearing a bright blue Hawaiian shirt with green palm leaves. The other man is wearing a tan khaki sportscoat, glasses with heavy black frames, and speaks in a high-pitched voice. The two men barely move during this scene. The background for their conversation consists of traditional bar sounds, voices murmuring, and clinking glasses.
BLUE SHIRT MAN
Let me get this straight: You, a guy who doesn’t gamble on horse racing and doesn’t know a trotter from a giraffe, guarantees, flat out guarantees, to improve my odds of winning money gambling on horses?
TAN JACKET MAN
Correct. I know mathematics and money. After all, I worked as an accountant (leans towards Blue Shirt man and speaks dramatically) in a business where everyone counts.
BLUE MAN
(Drops chin to chest)
How many times have you used that?
TAN MAN
Too often. Let’s review your basics. You said you gamble $100 each week on harness horse racing, but you skip two weeks for holidays for a total of $5,000 earmarked for wagering on horse racing each year.
BLUE MAN
Correct.
TAN MAN
And you never turned a profit?
BLUE MAN
No. However, I didn’t lose all $5,000 in 1994, 1999, 2006, and 2020. At the end of those years, I still had gambling money in my account. I consider those my winning years.
TAN MAN
That’s not winning.
BLUE MAN
It felt like winning.
TAN MAN
According to your statistics, what was your best year?
BLUE MAN
Easy, 2006, before computers kicked in. I wound up with a little over three grand in my horse racing gambling stash, a thrilling experience. I took a Christmas cruise on my winnings.
TAN MAN
You took a cruise on your not lost money.
BLUE MAN
It’s a perspective thing. I don’t hear your plan to remedy my fiscal horse-related headwinds.
TAN MAN
Okay, let’s talk about the money part of wagering on horses. Let’s start with basics like takeouts and exotics. What do you know about them?
BLUE MAN
(Pause)
Well, takeouts are like a guy who holds a poker party in his basement and before every hand says, “Hey folks, toss some cash into this empty fishbowl on the table for my trouble, for booze, snacks, broken furniture, and keeping an eye on the poker chips.”
TAN MAN
Of course, you realize that different tracks and wagers have different takeout amounts. Would you rather pay your poker host a dime per hand or a quarter per hand?
BLUE MAN
Look, the whole takeout thing is a moving target. Every track has a way of making meatloaf, and they change the recipe. Takeout is like a crazy uncle who sits in the corner at a big family affair and takes home a slab of meatloaf. You’ll never understand that guy.
TAN MAN
That crazy uncle is taking your money.
BLUE MAN
Maybe he needs it! In my twisted way, I feel like it’s a donation to the sport. I’m a sharing kind of guy.
TAN MAN
Well, your fiscal laissez-faire attitude is one of the factors affecting your deficits.
BLUE MAN
Fifteen per cent, 20 per cent, 25 per cent – what’s the difference?
TAN MAN
Five and 10 per cent.
BLUE MAN
Here’s the thing, takeout only comes into play when you win. Therefore, it’s not much of a factor for me. My race wagers are pretty much 100 per cent takeout. There would be a racetrack on every corner if there were enough guys like me.
TAN MAN
Let’s look at exotic wagering. Do you think the takeout is higher on a simple wager to win or an exotic?
BLUE MAN
The takeout is probably higher on exotics because if a mook like me ever won a big exotic, I would have so many endorphins ricocheting around my head that the government taxes and the racetrack takeout would not cross my mind.
TAN MAN
This stuff is essential.
BLUE MAN
(Waves his hand dismissively)
When you overthink things, they ain’t as much fun. Anyway, we are wandering in the weeds. Where’s your big plan for cutting my losses and breaking my 30-year losing streak?
TAN MAN
I propose a straightforward and ruthlessly effective plan. Each week, you take your $100 earmarked for gambling and put it in a 12-month certificate of deposit. At the end of the year, you will be in the black.
BLUE MAN
Oh, come on! That’s so weak! I’m disappointed.
TAN MAN
Hang on. I’m not finished. On the expiration date of the CD, you put the interest under your pillow and take the $5,000 you have amassed to gamble on a single, carefully selected race at a track that currently offers a very low takeout. You study that race so hard your eyeballs bleed. You make your wager.
BLUE MAN
Put it all on ONE race?
TAN MAN
All of it; you can play that single race any way you want. I would make a win and place a show wager to give myself a little wiggle room. Or you might want to play an exotic wager dozens of ways. To help racing, physically go to the racetrack to place the bet. Win or lose, you start saving for next year’s big wager.
BLUE MAN
Wow. That’s an intriguing suggestion, sort of the Big Bang Theory. I might miss the daily grind, but the big play day would be AWESOME. And the daily race programs I would not need to buy could probably let me buy a boat or something.
TAN MAN
Your chance for a yearly profit would increase dramatically. I can do the math and run you a few spreadsheets.
BLUE MAN
That’s not necessary. I get your drift. I might genuinely win money on these annual mega bets.
TAN MAN
It would take nerves of steel and severe discipline, but as you said, the experience would be a perspective thing.
BLUE MAN
A five-grand wager for me might be a medical thing.
They clink beer glasses.
FADE BLACK WITH IRIS CUT