by Melissa Keith

Public handicappers are everywhere. Woodbine Mohawk Park has a large number of professionals and amateurs weighing in every race. How does a bettor find the most consistently-profitable opinions with so many on offer?

Ask Gabe Di Paolo, or just follow his Twitter account (@noahurstats).

With the start of the new year comes an ideal opportunity to ask the voluntary WMP statistician about final results for 2023, and why he got into tabulating the public handicappers’ results.

“I started off being a thoroughbred guy,” Di Paolo said Tuesday (Jan. 3). “Just like in Woodbine thoroughbred, there was not any info on how well the public cappers were doing with their choices, so I put it upon myself to do what I call the ‘dirty work.’ Sometimes, I got the feeling that they were not too happy about it, but I was assured that was not the case.”

April 2024 will mark his 10th anniversary of producing Twitter/X charts tracking results for Woodbine Racetrack’s thoroughbred public handicappers. Di Paolo said he began compiling WMP harness handicappers’ stats in late 2015. They do not regularly appear on any other websites or social media, although he said that “there were occasions that the charts were seen elsewhere.”

No individual WMP handicapper dominated throughout 2023.

“Any given day, it seems, any capper has their chance to rise to the top, and they do,” said Di Paolo.

Not all public handicappers provided selections for every card, but there were clear 2023 champs. Ghislain Paquet had the most top-choice winners (846), with Robert Reid, Jr. finishing second (830). The best average payout for 2023 was Reid, Jr.’s $0.8657, ahead of Paquet’s $0.8384. John Rallis only provided selections for 78 WMP race dates. His best average payout was an impressive $0.8790 in what Di Paolo called “an amazing start to his new journey as new co-host of Mohawk Live.”

Di Paolo’s charts compare each public handicapper’s picks with those of other featured handicappers, as well as against specific metrics, including C5, “the consensus of top five weighted choices from the group.” He noticed a particular trend last year.

“Just like with knowing how well the other cappers are doing individually, knowing how well the favorites, morning line, numbers, and consensus of the cappers [are performing] helps me with my selections,” he said. “It is interesting to note that in 2023, the favorites and morning line hit ratio went up a bit from 2022, but strangely, some of the cappers average payouts went down.”

Di Paolo said he thought that computer-assisted wagering (CAW) “could be” creating a downward trend in average payouts for the WMP handicappers.

“Looking back at the final chart of 2022, it was strange to see that some plummeted with their average payout in their final chart of 2023,” he said. “Would this be the case in 2024? Most likely, it seems. When I agree with the morning line and the favorites, my hit ratio is up in the 70 per cent range… It’s likely the same for most, since it was a chalky season helped by the CAWS for Mohawk in 2023.”

Di Paolo added that he has noticed another, related trend: Winning WMP longshot prices were amplified.

“When I go ‘lone wolfing,’ my payouts sometimes are way more than I expected them to be, thanks to the CAWS,” he said.

Playing favorites paid off last year at WMP and will likely continue in 2024.

“Most likely the favorite/morning line players will do better than the longshot players,” said the Richmond Hill, ON horseplayer. “There are days when [WMP simulcast show hosts] Elissa [Blowe] and Randy [Waples] fare better than Ghislain and Robert, Jr., and then there are days when Ghislain and Robert, Jr. fare better than Elissa and Randy.”

Perhaps surprisingly, WMP public handicappers have welcomed Di Paolo’s tabulation of their results, which cast an objective spotlight on predictive accuracy.

“No one has asked me to remove them from the charts,” said the unofficial statistician. “A few have asked to be put on, but some of them were not willing to put out the effort of having their picks ready for all the race cards. Life sometimes gets in the way, so sometimes they are not able to.”

Much can change between making selections and post time.

“Remember most public handicappers put in their picks two to three days beforehand,” said Di Paolo. “The public cappers’ picks are intended to give the [horseplayers] their view of what might occur in a horse race. Like in real life, [bettors] must go with their own instincts and rely on their work to find their picks and use the public cappers as a guide.”

Running his @noahurstats Twitter/X account is just the tip of the iceberg for Di Paolo. Much more goes on behind the scenes.

“Creating the charts [is] tedious,” he said, adding with a laugh, “You only see a small portion of them. [There are] 79 Sheets in the current spreadsheet. The dirty work of copying, pasting, typing the information needed doesn’t take that much time; it usually happens when I have time to do them, and I am not distracted from another project. I was a data/database analyst in my prior life.”

Calling the tabulation of handicappers’ results “a serious hobby for me to help pass the time,’’ Di Paolo said he got into it for one reason.

“Quick answer, I bet Mohawk,” he said. “If I do the charts for other tracks, it is safe to say that I am probably betting those tracks too: Grand River, Western Fair, Hanover, Truro, Meadowlands to name a few.”

Di Paolo said he would like to see formal appreciation for the WMP horseplayers of Twitter/X, who generate lively online dialogue every card.

“We go back to a tweet I recently tweeted, that Mohawk and Woodbine need to acknowledge those that help bring handicappers into the fun,” he said. “Cappers like Brad A., Sean N., Larry B., Trey S., pghPhil, Chad C., Lisa G… Sorry to anyone I may have missed.”

He added that he appreciated public handicappers allowing him to analyze their selections.

“I would like to give thanks to Sheri [Riddoch], Elissa [Blowe], Garnet [Barnsdale], John [Rallis], Brad [Almonski], Kevin [Plowcha], Sean [Patrick Nolan], Mike [Pribozie], Robert [Reid], Jr., Randy [Waples], Monique [Vág], Jeff [Bratt], Chad [Rozema] for allowing me to put in their opinions on races for Mohawk (and Woodbine) in these charts,” he said.

Di Paolo’s charts bring clarity to making picks for Canada’s top track, and that’s his intention.

“I hope the charts challenge the cappers to improve on what they are doing right, and get better with what they are doing wrong, in their view,” he said.

When it comes to those whose work he most admires, Di Paolo found it tough to narrow down the field. “There are so many that come to mind – everyone’s work habits and ability to have fun at the job is a joy to see,” he said.

On the thoroughbred side, he named Woodbine’s Jim Bannon and father Jim Bannon, Sr. (aka Abernathy), “one of the best at finding longshots.” Mike Hamilton and Ken Middleton earned top marks for harness handicapping.

Numbers show what separates the most successful WMP handicappers from the rest, but Di Paolo said attitude is probably the most important factor in their success.

“Cappers who tend to win more often than lose are not worried about obstacles that they cannot control,” he said. “Cappers may want the obstacles to change, but changing might result in worse rewards, in my opinion. To each his own.”