Despite lower key Pace elimination, Saturday’s Big M card is set to deliver fireworks

by Brett Sturman

What a difference one month makes, or for that matter even one week. All winter and through spring the 3-year-old pacing conversation had been dominated by Beau Jangles and Odds On Mr Mamba, and now just like that the consistent 1-2 punch in all Meadowlands Pace rankings up until about five minutes ago won’t even make the race.

There’s no denying that the changed complexion dampens the hype some, as tonight’s sole elimination race looks vastly different than one would have first thought prior to the draw. But the Pace elimination is just one of eleven races on a heat-abbreviated card loaded with high drama throughout. With 4th of July fireworks planned at the conclusion of the card, here’s my thoughts on where sparks may fly throughout the major stakes races.

RACE 3, GRADE 3 JL CRUZE OPEN TROT

Last year’s Trotter of the Year Lexus Kody has interestingly yet to be favored in any of his prior three starts this year, but that trend will change tomorrow night. In this smaller field of seven, Lexus Kody returns off a convincing 1:50.4 at Woodbine Mohawk Park; a track he seems to have an affinity for. He had second-over cover in that race although it wasn’t the greatest as he had to go wide while losing some ground into the lane, but once he got rolling, he went right on by his closest rival tonight Aetos Kronos, and humbled that one when going on to win by close to four lengths. Now at age 10, Aetos Kronos is seeking his first win of the season while going for top connections of Melander and Dunn; is obviously capable as could be said for top trotter Up Your Deo who owns a strong history here for Svanstedt. It seems the winner has to come from one of these three, with it being Lexus Kody’s to win or lose.

RACE 6, GRADE 3 SIX PACK MARES OPEN TROT

As a non-race sidenote, why is a race for open mare trotters named for a trotting colt? Shouldn’t it be named something like, the Atlanta? Ditto for race 11 later where mare pacers are named for a pacing colt. Who knows?

As for the race itself, Bourbonista won last out in the Armbro Flight at 43-1 and if you didn’t know the odds you would have thought she was 6-5. Showing speed in that $154,800 final, she was shuffled a bit from the 2-hole as the leader tired, angled out, sped to the inside and powered away to that four-length win in a new lifetime best of 1:50.4, proving her strong close two back here at The Meadowlands was not a fluke. Tough to get a good feeling on Warrawee Michelle early in the season. She was tired late after a first-over try in the Armbro Flight and then last out at Pocono was no match late at all from the pocket against Dame Good Time; maybe more coming in the third start back. Elista Hanover wasn’t looking to do much in that race here towards the end of May on the sloppy surface even before she broke, but she did get very hot here around this same time last year. Miracle Maven coasted the last time seen here as the heavy favorite and did well for herself in the Armbro Flight. Bravo Angel is always a threat and came on well towards the end of her mile last out with her patented late close. She has shown a speed dimension as well but against these I would guess she’ll be coming from off the pace. Yo Tillie was scratched out of her Armbro Flight elimination on June 13 and this will be her first start of the year; seems like a lot with post 10 for the 4-year-old.

RACE 7, GRADE 1 MEADOWLANDS PACE 3-YEAR-OLD OPEN ELIMINATION

I wouldn’t say the Meadowlands Pace is suddenly wide open with Beau Jangles and North America Cup winner Odds On Mr Mamba being non-starters, but it does open the race more to horses who have gone from otherwise longer chance status to contenders. Al Papi, Lindy Dragonwater, and Melillo have accepted byes to next week’s final, and that leaves seven of the 10 horses in the elimination to advance.

Brandon Blvd who raced giant in the North America Cup final will assume the role of Pace favoritism and might even be odds-on for the final depending on how his elimination goes. Sweet Lovin Lou is another who suddenly has his profile raised once again. Going back to the end of May in the Somebeachsomewhere, he was very good late to be second to Brandon Blvd, won his North America Cup elimination, but wasn’t at his best for the final. Zeron retains the drive and we’ll see how this one does here at The Meadowlands. Gentleman’s Club is another fascinating one. He won the Governor’s Cup here last year at 2 to close out his season and put up a giant 1:47.4 mile here just last week on the change to Dunn. It’s back to Andrew McCarthy now with Dunn on Brandon Blvd and it will be interesting to see what he brings tonight as an encore. Bookie J was upset last out by Ryder stablemate Obliterate in the NJSDF final; neither of those two might be too far off from the rest of these.

RACE 8, GRADE 2 STAN BERGSTEIN GRADUATE FINAL 3-YEAR-OLD OPEN TROT

What a race this has shaped up to be, and what a strong group of 4-year-old trotters to join the older trotting ranks.

Super Chapter will be favored as deserved but there are loads of threats to him here. Starting with two of the three stronger Svanstedt entries, both Warrior and Mr Mouton are upset threats. Warrior flashed home last out with a :26.1 final quarter to sprint late into Super Chapter who walked them to the half in a :57.1 split in that race. Warrior pulled off a shocker against Super Chapter last year in Lexington as well. Mr Mouton was absolutely raging through the stretch in his prior Graduate leg and in the process derailed the 27-race win streak of On To Norway; this is a horse with only 15 lifetime starts and has obvious talent. As for On To Norway, he was game in defeat in that Graduate leg where he ended up coming first over against Go Dog Go and did eventually get past that leader late before being snatched up by the race winner. Gingras is bound to be aggressive early from the outside post and what better race with $230,000 on the line to start a new streak. Go Dog Go is a tough one to predict. He put in a nice stretch move two back against Super Chapter but really didn’t have an excuse last out when I thought he was a winner midway through the stretch. His best gives him a chance, as could be said for any of these listed.

RACE 9, GRADE 3 DAVE BROWER MEMORIAL OPEN PACE

All the big FFA guns are back out for this one and that includes last year’s divisional champion, the 1:46.2 winner Ervin Hanover. He returns here off that win two weeks ago in the Gold Cup at Mohawk where he worked out a third-over trip from post 9, came four-wide into the stretch, swept and got up by a half-length over the pace setting Lou Hill. He looks to make amends from that seventh-place finish to close out the year here last year in the FanDuel at odds of 4-5; could be looking at an identical price in this race. Captain Albano will begin from post 11 in the second-tier and while this will mark his eighth start of the year, it’ll be just his first on a non-half-mile track; looks like the main threat to the favorite. In the past, the likes of Bythemissal, Coaches Corner, and Maximus Miki would all be stronger possibilities but current form doesn’t seem like it’s quite there right now to the level of Ervin Hanover. Ken Hanover could be a possibility if Tetrick can work a trip from post 9.

RACE 10, GRADE 2 STAN BERGSTEIN GRADUATE FINAL 3-YEAR-OLD OPEN PACE

Prince Hal Hanover really was impressive when returning to The Meadowlands in his Graduate leg two weeks ago and that race marked him as squarely the one to beat now. Heading into that race I thought Captain Optimistic would have been made the favorite by virtue of his 1:46.4 win the week prior, but the public wasn’t fooled by the win times. Prince Hal Hanover was coming off that strong first-over try in the Gold Cup won by Ervin Hanover, and he delivered in that race against Captain Optimistic when driven like he was the best horse – and he was. Rematch coming between those two while starting right next to each other in posts 5 and 6. Ayeaye Captain Deo was closing well late two back off the hot pace in that race won by Captain Optimistic and did upset in a Graduate leg at Mohawk three back. Stratton back aboard and could work out a nice cover trip out of post 3; a lively pace aids his cause. Fallout was a determined winner here two weeks ago in his Graduate race but has the misfortune now of landing post 10; he was game two back as well and would think he’ll be firing. Bruno No No No delivered that 1:48.2 half-mile record five back in his Juravinski elimination but hasn’t won since; Swingtown almost upset two back and probably would have if not for being briefly blocked when looking to the inside.

RACE 11, GRADE 3 PERFECT STING MARES OPEN PACE

Ryder stablemates Miki And Minnie and Twin B Joe Fresh enter this race with tune-ups at Plainridge and Chester, respectively. In the case of Twin B Joe Fresh, that Chester win in 1:48.4 against lesser might serve as a needed confidence builder as the near $3 million career earner looks to right the ship early into her 6-year-old season. Louies Girl N comes off a solid third place finish in the Roses Are Red where she rallied nicely from third over into Miki And Minnie and The Last Martini; was an elimination winner two back. Always B Naughty won this division’s Breeders Crown last year; driver change coming to Kakaley. Rodeo Drive Deo had too much work to do against these last out in the Roses Are Red final; post 10 is an obvious hindrance.