by Trey Nosrac

We need more players to play our horse racing game. New players with new revenue will not appear magically or organically. One road we could explore to increasing gambling participation may be using our post positions as random number generators.

Many methods come to mind for new people selecting lottery-like numbers before the horses approach the starting gate. True horse gamblers and serious handicappers will not be interested, but they should be. Incorporating wagered money from people who prefer to pick a number is to your advantage. The mantra for any serious handicapper of horses racing in a pari-mutuel situation should be, “Give me large pools of stupid money.”

Consider the following:

Eight horses are in a race, numbered 1 through 8. What are the random chances of the total number of the first and second-place finishers totaling 3? The order of finish does not matter; only the total of the first two finishers. For example, (1, 2) or (2, 1), a total of 3.

This race has 28 possible totals. The range of possible totals is from 3 to 15. In a random selection situation, the possible totals and odds are below.

The first column is the winning number, followed by a pair or pairs that create the sum, followed by the probability of occurrence in a percentage:

3 (1, 2) 3.57 per cent

4 (1, 3) 3.57 per cent

5 (1, 4), (2, 3) 7.14 per cent

6 (1, 5), (2, 4) 7.14 per cent

7 (1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4) 10.71 per cent

8 (1, 7), (2, 6), (3, 5) 10.71.29 per cent

9 (1, 8), (2, 7), (3, 6), (4, 5) 14.29 per cent

10 (2, 8), (3, 7), (4, 6) 10.71 per cent

11 (3, 8), (4, 7), (5, 6) 10.71 per cent

12 (4, 8), (5, 7) 7.14 per cent

13 (5, 8), (6, 7) 7.14 per cent

14 (6, 8) 3.57 per cent

15 (7, 8) 3.57 per cent

Any handicapper worth his pencil, racing program, and calculator can look at a race program and easily skew these odds favorably. If the payoff total is 3 in a race, and you notice the #1 or #2 horse looks hopeless, the wise horse player does not play the number 3. However, if the experienced horse gambler finds both the #1 and #2 are live, 3 becomes a more attractive target.

This proposed concept does not target horseplayers. The proposal is a vehicle for the other 98 per cent of humans for whom reading a racing program is as likely as reading a Latin scroll. Differing sizes of fields and late scratches of horses will require some flexibility, but the first and second-place finishers will always determine a total number.

For now, imagine we keep it simple and say to a newbie:

“Pick a number, any number from 3 to 15, and wager whatever amount you wish on this lucky number. If the total of the first two horses matches the number you chose, you win.

“Some of the numbers are easier to hit than others. For example, 3, 4, 14, and 15 are the most difficult to match. In horseracing, we call these long shots, but should you hit on these numbers, you will win nine times your wagered amount.

“Conversely, as you see in the chart, the number 9 is the easiest to match because four combinations total 9. In horse racing, we call this the favorite. You will win only four times your wagered amount if you match one of these numbers. The amount you win depends on the difficulty of your number hitting.”

This wagering suggestion is merely a proposal. Adjusting the various payoff amounts will be required. Initially, I thought these payoffs should be fixed odds payoffs for the simplicity of new gamblers on horses. However, a case could be made for the odds varying slightly according to the wagering, keeping the pari-mutuel format intact.

Matching the correct number total of the first two finishers seems simple. New wagerers should not feel intimidated because they are just choosing a number. The payoffs would be high enough to entice players. New gamblers merely choose their number and watch the race intently, constantly calculating the finish needed to make them a winner.

The exact format is for mightier minds than mine, but using our numbers to increase participation could be as easy as one number plus one number equals fun.