After earning $16.6 million in 2024 in just 1,394 starts, it’s certainly possible Dunn could set a new standard this year, but it will require a lot of work.

by Brett Sturman

Coming off his highest earning year since driving Stateside full time, it raises the question as to just how much higher Dexter Dunn can go in the upcoming season. Concluding last year with a record breaking six Breeders Crown wins and being impeccably positioned to do more of the same now, could Dunn go so far as to approach Tim Tetrick’s record-breaking earnings season from 2008?

If you don’t want to read through the next thousand words or so to find out I can save you the suspense. The answer is almost certainly ‘no,’ but researching the question proves just how insanely good both Dunn’s 2024 season with $16.6 million in earnings was as well as Tetrick’s in 2008 when he accomplished $19.7 million in earnings.

That Dunn was able to reach $16.6 million in earnings last year with just 1,394 starts is astonishing. That’s an incredible $11,908 per start.

Put it this way, the last time anyone beat $16.6 million — and it hasn’t happened often — was in 2014 when Yannick Gingras got to $17.3 million, but it took him 2,250 starts to get there ($7,688 per start). Dunn did nearly the same in almost half the starts.

By comparison, in Tetrick’s record setting 2008 year it took him 4,048 starts to come just shy of $20 million ($4,866 per start), though he would go on to reach similar heights with fewer starts as the years went on. Looking back on it now, the run that Tetrick started with in 2007 through 2023 is unbelievable.

But back to the question and what it means going forward: How did Dunn achieve so much with so few starts? Simply put, he won a lot of the races that counted most. Dunn won an unprecedented percentage of the biggest races throughout the year. By the numbers, there were 105 races last year Dunn raced in that carried a purse of $200,000 or greater. He won 37 of those (35.2 per cent). Of races for $300,000 or more, he won 20 out of 53 for 37.7 per cent. And then for races that carried purses of $500,000 or more, he won nearly 50 per cent, capturing eight out of those 18 races.

One would have to think that those numbers would approach Dunn’s ceiling for how many of the biggest races one person can possibly win. Even if Dunn were to go into those same races this year with the same (or let’s say even slightly higher) quality level of horses, there’s bound to be a similar number of losses for the sole reason that the best horse won’t win every time.

What’s interesting when you look at the availability and purse structure of stakes from last year compared to 2008 is just how many more opportunities there are today. Back then, the very best stakes went for more money than those stakes go for today. The Hambletonian for example, went for $1.5 million at that time compared to $1 million today. The Meadowlands Pace was a $1 million race back then too. But those and other purse reductions have been offset and more by the emergence of increased sire stakes opportunities.

Kentucky is a great example as to how things have changed. Today, there is an endless string of various KY-sired events where purses are dished out at not only The Red Mile, but also at purse distribution tracks Cumberland Run and Oak Grove. The result is a culmination of finals varying from $80,000 on the low end to $400,000 on the high end and for all the divisions. Last year, Dunn won three $400,000 finals in Lexington alone. Tetrick didn’t have these same number of opportunities in 2008.

Repeating the Kentucky model elsewhere, there’s plenty of enhanced sire stakes conditions that Dunn will continue to have across Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana and other states if he elects. You could do the math horse by horse and calculate next year’s possible earnings for Maryland, Twin B Joe Fresh, Miki And Minnie and right on down the line, but all these races by themselves won’t net Dunn’s total by another $3 million. Keep in mind also: Dunn’s 2024 totals already included winning the Mohawk Million ($740,000 USD), the $1 million Yonkers International and he swept four Dayton Derby races in one night where purses totaled $1 million.

Now, could Dunn break the record and get to $20 million if he wanted to by simply driving in more races? Absolutely, he could. It doesn’t look like that will be the case though, and it underscores the quantity and quality of drives that Tetrick has put together historically.

In 2008, where Tetrick amassed 902 wins for the $19.7 million of the 22 races offered that year for $500,000 or more, Tetrick won just three of those (all for $500,000, exactly). Of the sport’s 45 races that year of purses $300,000 or greater that Tetrick raced in, he won just five of those. There were smaller, additional stakes thrown in there too, but it shows that Tetrick accomplished those record feats on the back of a grueling year-long schedule through the overnight races.

Summing up that year, Tetrick last raced on Dec. 7 when he raced 20 times across races at Chester and Dover. He concluded that day and his year with a win in a $7,500 claiming race with a purse of $6,000 – emblematic of that tough, blue-collar year.

At the same time, Dunn’s 2024 was truly magical. Even if the stars align further in 2025 and you somehow give Dunn an extra million — which would mean he is winning almost every big race everywhere — that would still only get him to maybe $18 million. Is there an extra $2 million somewhere to be put together? We’ll find out.