How my predictions stacked up with the real sale.

by Murray Brown

I’ve decided to take a break from the continuing series on Little Brown Jug winners. As MacArthur said, “I shall return.”

“All I have to do is dream, dream, dream”

That refrain from the great Everly Brothers song fits me to a tee. In my case it doesn’t apply to love as Don and Phil were singing, but to horses and my wishes which were never even remotely close to my pocketbook.

When I received my Lexington Selected catalog some six weeks or so ago, I immediately set to work in trying to detail my dreams. Part of my research related to putting together a mock 20 horse stable composed of five members each of trotting colts and fillies and the same with pacers; all selling on day 1. With each yearling chosen for “my stable” I put a fictitious price at which I guesstimated the yearling might bring. Knowing with certainty that there were several which would top that number, I nevertheless put a ceiling price of $300,000 on all of them. In my mind I’d be buying them regardless of how much they brought. After all I was only spending imaginary dollars.

So here are the four segments of my stable; each group is listed in order of my preference. They are not necessarily listed in order of price, although a few are.

TROTTING COLTS

Hip #107 Charlie K Hanover — My number $200,000. Sold for $475,000 to Courant Inc.

Chapter Seven—Crucial—Father Patrick

The first foal from a multiple Grand Circuit Stakes winning mare who earned $528,598.

Generally, names don’t mean a lot to me. In all my years at Hanover I doubt that I knew as much as 10 per cent of the names of the yearlings until and when they started racing. I would simply identify them as the colt out of Crucial or such. But this name probably means more to me and probably the folks at Hanover as any that I can recall. He is named after one of the great people in the history of our sport. The fact that he was bought by Courant probably means that he is destined for a change of names. That is something those folks usually do. I hope they don’t. But if they do, I hope they retain the name of the great man for who he is named. Charlie, Charlie K, Keller or even Charlie Keller, if any are available, might do.

Hip #83 Carouser — My number $250,000. Sold for $200,000 to Dave McDuffee.

Muscle Hill—Woodside Charm—Chapter Seven

A Muscle Hill colt from an incredibly fast world champion who earned $531,658.

My first thought when looking at the pedigree page of this colt was “Wow! If that this isn’t the pedigree of a horse that is meant to occupy a stud barn somewhere, then I’ve never seen one.” Now all the colt has to do is become a major stakes winner at 2 and 3 and he’s all set. The pedigree is loaded with power. In addition to Woodside Charm, herself a Chapter Seven mare, she perhaps brings more currency to the pedigree with her half-brother Explosive Matter having been a Cantab Hall. In addition, my good friend Dave McDuffee bought him. It gives me a horse to root for the next two years.

Hip #101 Gucci Hill — My number $100,000. Sold for $125,000 to Marcus Melander.

Greenshoe—Caprice Hill—Kadabra

I know that, generally speaking, some folks are down on Greenshoe. The expectations were high, perhaps too high. But as is always the case, things are never as good or as bad as seen on first glance. Yes, he did sell a bunch of high-priced yearlings, none of which have raced to expectations as of yet. But his numbers are excellent. He gets them to the races and they are winners. As for this colt’s dam, she is an all-time favorite of mine. As well as I can recollect, she never went a bad race. She won 16 races and earned $1,329,072. I will make a prediction that she will one day produce a champion. Being in the hands of the young trotting master Marcus Melander will certainly not hurt his cause.

Hip #102 The Rogue Prince — My number $200,000. Sold for $375,000 to Lucas Wallin.

Walner—Check Me Out—Donato Hanover

This colt checks all the boxes. A great individual? Check. At least apparently so. Poor individuals do not bring $375,000. A great pedigree by leading sire Walner and out of a great filly who earned $1,903,795 and who has already shown she is capable of producing major stakes winners. Check. A great video. Check.

Hip #55 Le Bateau — My number $200,000. Sold for $85,000 to Ken Jacobs.

Walner—Fade Into You—Cantab Hall

This is my second Walner colt. As Glen Garnsey would say about Albatross when that horse was in his prime, “You can’t train too many or pay too much for them.” This one is out of the fast Cantab Hall mare Fade Into You who earned $215,626. Were there more attractive pages of Walner yearlings in the catalog? Undoubtedly. I liked his video and his way of going. To be quite frank, there was something intangible about this colt that appealed to the inner me.

Totals for trotting colts: My prices $950,000. Sold for $1,260,000.

TROTTING FILLIES

Hip #48 Kadena — My number $300,000. Sold for $800,000 to Marcus Melander.

Gimpanzee—Mission Brief—Muscle Hill

This filly was my number one pick in the overall sale. The only reason I priced her at $300,000 was because that number was my self-imposed limit. I could just as easily have priced her at $500,000 or even at a million. I once did some other dreaming about Mission Brief, the dam of this filly. When she came off the racetrack, I recall her being sold for somewhere around $700,000. I said at the time that all she had to do was live and produce foals and she would prove to be a great bargain. She did and she is. If she were mine, I would have first bred her to the great super stallion Ready Cash, then at the very height of his prowess. My thought was that if she produced a filly, it could be a stepping stone to enhancing the breed. If it were a colt and looked the part, it would have the potential to generate worldwide interest as no other trotting colt had ever done. Alas, as with many of my dreams, it would not come to pass.

Hip #42 Kountry Meadow — My number $300,000. Sold for $200,000 to Lindy Farms.

Chapter Seven—Plunge Blue Chip—Muscle Mass

I have long been an admirer of Plunge Blue Chip ($1,576,251), the dam of this filly. This is her first foal, a filly by one of the sport’s super sires Chapter Seven. What’s not to like?

Hip #32 Appellation — My number $100,000. Sold for $50,000 to Mauimee River Farms.

Muscle Hill—Quincy Blue Chip—Chapter Seven

I marked this filly down as a definite bargain. A perfect blending of young and a bit older. The young being a young Chapter Seven mare who earned $675,430 and the older being the great Muscle Hill. A note on the Muscle Hill yearlings. I thought that on paper this group represented his finest crop yet. There is a somewhat prejudice against age in this business. We see it with Cantab Hall, yet he has the most accomplished 2-year-old trotter of the year in TCI and a few of the better fillies. On the pacing front, we see it even more with Bettor’s Delight. We shall see the same with Muscle Hill and therein for the wise shopper lies value.

Hip #96 Beltissima Natalie — My number $200,000. Sold for $220,000 to Ake Svanstedt.

Walner—Beltane Hanover—Andover Hall

One need not go much further than saying that this filly was bred and raised by Jean Pierre Dubois, in my opinion, the greatest all around horseman and horse whisperer of the last century or more. When looking for the best, one needs a Walner. This is one of the better ones. She is a half-sister to the multiple stakes’ winner Beltassima ($550,447) and comes from a solid Hanover family. She now has connections to two of the world’s greatest horsemen in her breeder and now with her trainer to be Ake Svanstedt.

Hip #56 Oklahomasmokeshow — My number $200,000. Sold for $300,000 to Tony Alagna.

Tactical Landing—Flawless Lindy—Cantab Hall

With the kind of year Tactical Landing is having how could I not have at least one on my list? Here is the one. Out of a multiple stakes winner, who has produced multiple stakes winners including the champion and classics winner Southwind Frank ($1,950,887) and traces to a great trotting family.

Totals for trotting fillies: My prices $1,100,000. Sold for $1,720,000.

PACING COLTS

Hip #13 Pursuitofpaplness — My number $200,000. Sold for $100,000 to Determination.

Papi Rob Hanover—Im With Her—Bettor’s Delight

This is a colt with which I’m in love. I actually thought my pre-sale guess of $200,000 might be a bit low. He has lots of plusses; a great stakes producing dam. He comes from a great family. I, like most others, am a great believer in his sire Papi Rob Hanover as well as his rival Tall Dark Stranger. Why did he not bring more money? I can only guess. I have never seen the colt up close, but by looking at his video, knowing that he is a mid-May foal and knowing that the family does not generally produce big horses, I can only guess that he is of the small order. I can virtually guarantee that he will grow. The colt you see today will be significantly larger in a year.

PS: I love his name.

Hip #69 Strangerinthenight — My number $250,000. Sold for $150,000 to Steve Head.

Tall Dark Stranger—Tall Drink Hanover—Captaintreacherous

Youth on youth. First crop by TDS, from a world champion Captaintreacherous filly who earned $893,532. The colt was purchased by Steve Head, a patron of the Tony Alagna stable. I assume the colt will be trained by Alagna. He comes from a strong family that goes back to Delinquent Account.

Hip #27 Robbing Mcgibson — My number $150,000. Sold for $125,000 to Rick Berks.

Papi Rob Hanover—Mcgibson—McArdle

Another Papi Rob Hanover colt. This one from a multiple stakes producing mare who is the dam of Breeders Crown winner Boston Red Rocks ($1,370,016). The colt was purchased by the owner of Boston Red Rocks.

Hip #91 Cos D’Estournel — My number $175,000. Sold for $200,000 to Tony Alagna.

Tall Dark Stranger—Baby Your The Best—Captaintreacherous

The first clue to my liking this boy is its name. Cos d’Estournel is the name of one of Bordeaux’s greatest wines. It might have been the first French wine introduced to me by my late, great friend and wine guru Geoff Stein. He’s the first foal from an excellent Captaintreacherous mare Baby Your The Best ($477,497), sibling to Bushwacker ($743,808) and Flipper J ($586,182), who traces on the page to the great Stienam one of the most prolific branches of the great Miss Bertha C family.

Hip #38 Prince Hal Hanover — My number $150,000. Sold for $130,000 to Mac Nichol.

Captaintreacherous—Percy Blue Chip—Shadow Play

The first colt and second foal from O’Brien winner Percy Blue Chip ($874,267), a sibling to Kenneth J ($1,562,007) and Arthur Blue Chip ($524,707) and tracing to one of Delvin Miller and Hugh Grant’s great families.

Totals for pacing colts: My prices $925,000. Sold for $705,000.

PACING FILLIES

Hip #63 She’s A Stranger — My number $150,000. Sold for $110,000 to Our Three Sons.

Tall Dark Stranger—Shes Some Treasure—Somebeachsomewhere

I wrote on her catalog page “A Steal.” It’s not, generally speaking, that one buys one for six figures that one considers a steal but this is the kind of filly upon which great broodmare bands are made. By the very promising sire Tall Dark Stranger and out of a stakes winning sister to Captaintreacherous who has already produced three stakes winning fillies including Mikala ($481,835).

Hip #88 Astoria Hanover — My number $150,000. Sold for $160,000 to Dave McDuffee.

Papi Rob Hanover—Anderosa Hanover—The Panderosa

A sibling to the Dan Patch winner, multiple stakes winner and double millionaire Allywag Hanover ($2,025,793). Purchased by Dave McDuffee, the owner of her sire. I’m assuming that McDuffee checked over all the Papi Rob Hanovers and came up with this filly. That in itself is enough for me.

Hip #49 Treacheryinthedark — My number $250,000. Sold for $700,000 to Andrew Harris for Bill Pollack.

Captaintreacherous—Rainbowinthedark—Bettor’s Delight

The highest priced pacing filly in Lexington and likely the highest priced one anywhere this year. She is the result of a bidding war between Harris and Alagna. She is a half-sister to the Harris trainee Seven Colors ($705,370) and only the second foal from her Bettor’s Delight dam a sister to Dan Patch winner Bettor’s Wish ($2,601,23), from the Three Diamonds branch of the world’s greatest pacing family.

Hip #7 Kamari Blu — My number $150,000. Sold for $45,000 to Frank Chick.

Captaintreacherous—Hen Party—Roll With Joe

I was way off with my guesstimate. It’s not the norm for any Captaintreacherous filly to bring $45,000, let alone one from a multiple-stakes winning filly who earned $594,518; is a sibling to the O’Brien winner Stag Party ($829,555) and comes from a prolific family loaded with stakes and first class winners. Leave it to bargain hunter Frank Chick to be there when perhaps others were not.

Hip #84 Zendaya Hanover — My number $200,000. Sold for $120,000 to Joe Holloway.

Captaintreacherous—Zero Tolerance—Heston Blue Chip

It’s appropriate and telling that this filly was purchased by Zero Tolerance’s ($980,736) trainer and Hall of Famer Joe Holloway. She is the first foal from her dam who is out of a sister to the Hall of Fame, Dan Patch and O’Brien winning Horse of the Year Rainbow Blue ($1,428,934).

Totals for pacing fillies: My prices $910,000. Sold for $1,535,000.

Overall total: My prices: $3,885,000. Sold for $5,220,000 — difference of $1,335,000