Title on the line in round 5 between On To Norway and Super Chapter

by Debbie Little

They say, “It all comes down to the Breeders Crown,” but in reality, at least in some cases, “The FanDuel furnishes the fuel to rule.”

Depending on the outcome, the FanDuel should end the debate for Dan Patch divisional honors between On To Norway and Super Chapter, by tipping the scales one way or the other.

Although the draw for the four FanDuel Championships doesn’t take place until Tuesday (Nov. 10), connections of the two top older trotting titans have said they are Jersey bound.

Prior to the action-packed card on Nov. 14 at The Meadowlands that features the FanDuel Championships along with the Fall Final Four — the Goldsmith Maid, Governor’s Cup, Three Diamonds, and Valley Victory — both competitors will be in action tonight with Super Chapter in a qualifier at The Big M and On To Norway in an open at Hoosier Park.

Unlike the majority of the recently-held midterm elections, the race for Dan Patch Older Male Trotter of the Year, just like this year’s Hambletonian, is too close to call.

In this week’s Hambletonian Society/Breeders Crown Top 10 Poll, On To Norway (No. 2) and Super Chapter (No. 3) are separated by a mere 17 points with the former receiving two first-place votes, four fewer than the latter.

According to the conditions, the FanDuel is a stand-alone championship event for the top point-earning horses from seven designated stakes races.

By virtue of winning the Grade 1 Cashman and Maple Leaf and Grade 2 Dayton Derby, Super Chapter is the points leader for the open trotting division and gets post protection, drawing from 1 through 6.

On To Norway was not made eligible for the FanDuel, but in the race conditions, The Meadowlands reserves the right to invite the winner(s) of specific races to reach the maximum number of starters.

By virtue of his victory in the Breeders Crown open trot last month, On To Norway received an invitation to the FanDuel, provided he pay the declaration fee to enter the race, which was accepted.

When determining Dan Patch divisional honors, voters generally apply metrics that include, head-to-head competition and strength of schedule.

For the four times the pair has already met, the head-to-head numbers lean heavily in the direction of On To Norway, who has three wins over Super Chapter: the Grade 1 Breeders Crown and Hambletonian Maturity and Grade 2 Graduate final.

Super Chapter’s lone victory over On To Norway came in the Grade 2 Dayton Derby.

It should be noted that in both the Hambletonian Maturity and Graduate final, the margin of victory was a neck. Whereas in the Crown final, Super Chapter finished seventh just as On To Norway did in the Dayton Derby.

Strength of schedule is where it gets interesting.

On To Norway currently has five more starts this season than Super Chapter — a number that will increase by one after tonight’s (Nov. 7) race at Hoosier — with On To Norway at 12-2-0 in 15 starts with $1,587,131 and Super Chapter at 7-2-0 in 10 starts with $1,197,707.

Since more than a third (five out of 12) of On To Norway’s victories came in opens at Hoosier Park, and Super Chapter only competed against Grand Circuit competition, in an attempt to come closer to comparing apples to apples, if you remove On To Norway’s five opens at Hoosier Park, you are looking at the exact same record of 7-2-0 in 10 starts.

Super Chapter’s aforementioned three losses all came at the hands, or hooves, of On To Norway, while in addition to his loss to Super Chapter, On To Norway was beaten by a half-length by Mr Mouton in a leg of the Graduate and lost the Grade 2 Charlie Hill Memorial by six lengths to Emoticon Legacy.

In addition to the Crown, Maturity, and Graduate final, On To Norway won the Grade 2 Caesars Trotting Classic, a leg and final of the Indiana Sire Stakes, and a leg of the Graduate, while Super Chapter won the Grade 1 Yonkers International Trot, elim and final of the Grade 1 Maple Leaf Trot, Grade 1 John Cashman Memorial, and two legs of the Graduate.

While head-to-head goes to On To Norway, strength of schedule belongs to Super Chapter.

Head-to-head matchups like these are what drives our sport and whatever the outcome of the FanDuel Championship it’s been quite a ride with both of these champions.