What are the chances of another 2-year-old for Horse of the Year?

by Brett Sturman 

Don’t look now but trainer Dr. Ian Moore has another candidate in Shalom Hanover – but would voters go to that well again?

Of all things harness racing on social media platform X these days, there’s been one topic that has me feeling giddy — devilish even — and that’s the thought of another 2-year-old thrust into the debate for Horse of the Year.

That’s because on the heels of a thrilling win Monday (Sept. 7) over prior unbeaten and fellow 2-year-old juggernaut Starstruck Dreamer, it’s Shalom Hanover (Papi Rob Hanover—Sammy’s Magic Girl) who has now run his career unbeaten streak to six and is certain to make his top 10 debut when this week’s Hambletonian Society/Breeders Crown Poll is released. Shalom Hanover is trained by Moore, who of course trains last year’s 2-year-old Horse of the Year champion, Beau Jangles.

In winning his $300,000 Pennsylvania Sire Stake championship for 2-year-old colts and geldings two days ago, Shalom Hanover won in 1:49.2, the second straight time he’s won that fast when racing at Pocono. That mark equaled his win from an Aug. 3 Pennsylvania Sire Stakes race, which established a new all-time track record and was only one-fifth-of-a-second off the North American record on a five-eighths-mile track – temporarily. In between those Pocono races were easy, open length wins at Woodbine Mohawk Park in a pair of Grade 3 races, the Dream Maker and more recently Nassagaweya Stakes. 

For as fast as Shalom Hanover had been in Pennsylvania, Starstruck Dreamer would soon go even faster. Following up a 1:49.4 win on the same card as Shalom Hanover’s first 1:49.2, Starstruck Dreamer would then next-out set the freshman all-time five-eighths harness record when winning in an unbelievable 1:48.4 time at Harrah’s Philadelphia.

When the two stars met earlier this week it was Starstruck Dreamer who, despite post 8 against Shalom Hanover’s pole position, was made the 1-2 favorite while Shalom Hanover went off at even money. In the race, Shalom Hanover parked Starstruck Dreamer past an opening quarter of :26.3 before sitting the pocket through fractions of :54 and :1:21.3. Once into the stretch, Shalom Hanover gathered momentum along the inside, started coming, and sprinted late to just get up by a head over an equally dead-game Starstruck Dreamer in what now seems like a suddenly “ordinary” time of 1:49.2.

When the idea of Moore-trained and Beau Jangles barnmate Shalom Hanover was first floated it might as well have been tongue-in-cheek. But as of this moment, it now feels at least like a completely reasonable conversation to have.

It’s been well established through last year’s writings just how rare it is for a 2-year-old to win Horse of the Year. Not only would Shalom Hanover — or Starstruck Dreamer for that matter — need to continue to win at or near an unbeaten rate, but other top contenders would need to stumble at times. Just last Friday, for example, when making his first appearance since winning the Hambletonian, the sports No. 1-rated horse Apex came up inexplicably short at The Meadowlands at odds of five cents on the dollar when finishing fourth in a New Jersey Classic elimination. There’s still far too much racing to start playing what-if for each of the top contenders — and I do believe strongly the likes of Brandon Blvd, Super Chapter, On To Norway, and others are much better positioned than the top one’s last year — but let’s just say for now that Shalom Hanover continues to win and look like yet another generational 2-year-old.

Whether fair or not, Shalom Hanover or Starstruck Dreamer are going to be judged harsher due to how last year’s award winner Beau Jangles has come back thus far at age 3. 

As was chronicled beautifully by Dave Briggs one week ago, it’s not that Beau Jangles has been bad by any stretch of the word at age 3, and most recently won in a career-tying 1:48.3 mile. But when you put his sophomore record into the context of the sky-high expectations that come with the territory of being Horse of the Year at age 2, you’re going to get measured differently.

The race for Horse of the Year last year was hotly debated, where in the end voters opted for Beau Jangles with the hottest points for argument against being that the horse never raced outside of Ontario, as well as being a 2-year-old. In that tally, Beau Jangles won comfortably in the end notching 62 votes, more than twice of runner-up in the voting, Louprint, with 30 votes.

For Shalom Hanover, being PA-bred and having raced in the U.S. four times now, that part of the debate gets taken away. But as for being a 2-year-old, I’m sure there could be some reluctant ‘Beau’ voters, who seeing that the horse is more mortal this year, could think it’s a mistake to vote right back again for a 2-year-old. And from the same Moore barn no less.

Going back to 2014 when JK She’salady won Horse of the Year as a 2-year-old filly, she too, didn’t have the same level of success at age 3. As was quoted by Moore in Briggs’ column, Frantic Hanover who had the five-eighths 2-year-old record last year of 1:49.1 and whom Beau got much deserved credit at the time last year for beating, hasn’t come back the same at all.

It just shows much can change between 2 and 3. An honest case can be made that because certain 2-year-olds have an advantage over their peers as a matter of developing faster at the younger age — and may not hold the next year as those other horses develop — that 2-year-olds shouldn’t be considered at all. I don’t think I necessarily subscribe to that notion, but it is an interesting point.

Just into September now there’s still a massive amount of racing left to take place, but it will be worth keeping an eye on the pulse should Shalom Hanover continue to win in record setting fashion.