North America Cup provides a teachable moment on betting value

by Brett Sturman 

Value is one of the most used and often misinterpreted terms when it comes to wagering. What determines value isn’t necessarily a standalone horse with high odds, but rather how the market odds relate to your own individual assessment of what those odds should be.

Which brings us to last Saturday’s (June 13) North America Cup race. In my column in HRU the day before the race, I made the case for Beau Jangles, largely in part due to an expected reversal in odds between him and Odds On Mr Mamba from their elimination race the week prior. Here is the relevant part from that column:

I’m not making excuses at all for Beau Jangles. But I don’t think the elimination race changed many opinions. If you liked Beau Jangles last week and supported him when his odds were 2-5, he’s very appealing now at perhaps something where if I had to guess, 7-5. On the other hand, Odds On Mr Mamba stormed into Ontario and swept with a wide stretch rally at odds of slightly better than 5-2. With that win and now a slight post edge for the final, he has more of the look of an even money proposition, though the hometown crowd could still shift things towards “Beau.”

With those thoughts in mind and usually having a keen sense of where the betting public is going to land, I was legitimately surprised by the odds board as the North America Cup went off. Not only was there no reversal in odds between the top two contenders, but hardly anything changed from the week before at all. There were only the tiniest fluctuations as Beau Jangles went from 2-5 in his elimination to 3-5 in the final while Odds On Mr Mamba went from 5-2 to 2-1, but nothing at all like I thought from last week’s column.

This isn’t meant to be a cop-out on my selection of Beau Jangles as I did have reasons for picking him aside from the odds angle, but the persistent disparity between him and Odds On Mr Mamba did greatly change the dynamic. How the odds in the final were essentially unchanged from the odds in the elimination race truly was confounding, especially considering the stronger performance from Odds On Mr Mamba and the question-raising performance from Beau Jangles. My guess to explain the phenomenon would be that a large, favorable public sentiment on Beau Jangles that has been growing since last year, easily outweighed any questions that might have come out of just a single race.

Odds aside, I knew my top selection might have been in trouble when speaking last week to a prominent figure in the industry. Speaking socially and not for the purpose of a column, I’d paraphrase this person’s opinion as to Beau Jangles’ elimination defeat not being an anomaly or a result of the horse being first-over but rather because of the horse being put to the test for the first time this year. His feelings at that time, which was before the final, were that it was still entirely possible that Beau Jangles could have won the race – but by working out a trip off cover rather than racing on the front. This of course was just one person’s opinion, but it underscored a perceived vulnerability and a scenario where it would have been nearly impossible to back such a proposition at odds of 3-5.

The North America Cup wasn’t the only race that night where there was value to be found, even if at a shorter price. I was almost just as surprised that in the Fan Hanover final, the betting public made Be Perfect BG the favorite over Loua Dipa.

I won’t quote another excerpt from last week here, but I felt that given the circumstances and her dominance over this track, that Loua Dipa would have rightly warranted strong odds-on favoritism over New Jersey champion Be Perfect BG. And if you had told me that one filly would be 3-5 and the other would be 6-5, I wouldn’t have ever thought for a second that Loua Dipa would be above even money at 6-5. For that matter, I couldn’t even tell you the last time she was anything above 50 cents on the dollar. It’s hard to figure out the rationale. Maybe it was a play towards the connections of Beaton and Dunn, or maybe the smart money isn’t as sharp in these major races at Woodbine Mohawk Park as it is on a random Monday.

The interesting thing is that neither Odds On Mr Mamba or Loua Dipa were cinches to win, and in fact both were able to capitalize on perfect trips to get their wins. But maybe there is an element of karma at play here as well. If you have a strong, educated opinion along with the correct price to make a convicted play – then perhaps things have a way of working out.

Quick thoughts on handle: Handle for the 13-race North America Cup card was $5.6 million, which on the surface struck me as a solid figure. Accordingly, the Woodbine Mohawk Park press release lists it officially as the fourth highest handle, though it notes that other editions with higher handles were boosted by large mandatory Jackpot Hi-5 wagers.

What it doesn’t note however, is that the races this year were conducted without any competition from The Meadowlands as that track shifted from a Friday-Saturday schedule to Thursday-Friday because of a World Cup match Saturday at MetLife Stadium. With the harness racing world spotlight solely on itself that night, could the handle have been even higher? Maybe it actually was higher due to The Meadowlands not racing, but it’s hard to see it because of the loss in handle from the mandatory Jackpot Hi-5 which in 2022’s record handle accounted for a staggering $1.9 million alone of the total $6.3 million.

In any case, the card from last Saturday was an exciting one from top to bottom, and one that should set the tone for the stakes season ahead.