Picking and betting numbers and the insidious flow of handicapping misinformation

by Frank Cotolo

I remember my first pari-mutuel bet even though there was a lot going on in my life. It was the early 1970s. I was just out of college and still living with my parents. New York City Off-Track Betting (OTB) opened a slew of storefront parlors within walking and bus-riding distances from my house in Brooklyn. But I was not ready to become a customer even though my affection for harness racing was developing into the kind of love that attracts wagering. I watched many races on Stan Bergstein’s TV show and learned a lot from him on the broadcasts. But handicapping? Risking money to make more money solely by backing horses pacing and trotting in circles? I went to an OTB parlor for the first time while with a friend of mine. He wanted to make a bet. It took a few minutes on a short line and he put two dollars on a Triple bet.

“The horses have to finish one-two-three in the order I choose,” he said.

“I know that,” I said. “But how do you pick them to finish in that order?”

He chose three specific horses in a group of eight. Posts 1 and 2 and 4. OTB did not use numbers for horses in a field; it used capital letters. He chose B (post 2) and A (post 1) and D (post 4).

“Spells BAD,” he said.

“And?”

“Those three look as good to finish in the correct order as any other trio spelling a word do.”

“So,” I said, “there is no science to it?”

“You mean handicapping.”

“Right. That’s what I just did. I picked a winner and a place and show finisher.”

I thought: That could not be handicapping. That was guessing. Like playing Bingo in a church basement. Like playing the local illegal bookie’s numbers game. That was nuts to me.

Nuts until the next day when he got the results and it turned out he picked the winner and the place and the show finishers in the exact order. He made a-hundred-and-something dollars.

A neighbor of mine said, “I knew a guy who was a real good handicapper. He played the horses all the time. Went to the track a lot before the OTBs came. A guy can get good at making some cash at the races.” Then he said the words that changed my life. “But you got to know how to bet.”

Not just how to pick numbers, he meant. Not how to rely on luck alone. He meant to bet money in order to make money. That was not handicapping. Sounded like — dare I say it? Math.

My relationship with mathematics was similar to the one between Marc Anthony and Julius Caesar. I was Caesar. I resisted investing a great deal of time taking a math course at home. Relying on Stan Bergstein’s TV show for essentials was all I could handle.

Then I met an old friend from high school. Kenny. He played the horses. I recalled during lunch hours in the cafeteria he read the racing section of the New York Daily News. I took him to a coffee hang out and told him I wanted to know more about handicapping.

“The runners or the trotters?”

“Trotters.”

He gave me a quick class but also suggested there were easier ways. I could buy a slide-rule product that calculates various information and assigns numbers for each horse in a race.

“The highest number is the best horse. Play it to win. And for Exactas or Triples use the next-best numbers in the place and show spots.” The slide-rule product cost $25. “You’ll make it back fast.”

I bought it and made my first win bet on the highest number in the race. It lost. I won my second bet. It was a huge favorite. I made 40 cents. In a week I was down $20 so I sought other handicapping methods. The public handicappers in the Sports Eye newspaper offered a grid of race picks and comments but they were no better than the slide-rule gadget. I bought a paperback book on handicapping harness racing and the author loaded the pages with information that made him appear smart but were not useful for beginners.

I shuffled various methods around and hit the OTB parlors on evenings I did not work. I lost more than I won. I was taking a beating by the enemy and he was me; betting to break even. I went to the track a few times with friends. Each had his own system. Each met their enemies and it was them. I decided to spend more time and do more math and produce profits by handicapping like a pro. Stay tuned.