Finding value in the Borgata and McIntyre finals

by Frank Cotolo

Mike Lizzi photo – The author thinks Donegal Luther N (Yannick Gingras, shown winning a second leg of the Borgata) could provide good value in tonight’s $478,000 Borgata final.

As my personal odds line (POL) indicates for tonight’s (May 8) $478,000 featured pace at Yonkers, the Grade 2 Borgata final for 3 and up open pacers, there is a tight fit for a few overlays. The talented field going 1¼ miles around the half-miler could produce a few values by demanding prices on or over the personal lines. Here is the rundown in post-position order:

1. Coaches Corner — 5-2

2. Soho Firestone A — 30-1

3. Donegal Luther N — 9-2

4. Captain Albano — 6-1

5. Huntinthelastdolar — 6-1

6. Redwood Hanover — 6-1

7. Mossdale Ben N — 30-1

8. Howlenthehills — 30-1

Ed Rodriguez photo – Frank Cotolo also thinks Tarapasta (Matt Kakaley, shown winning a third leg of the McIntyre) could provide value in tonight’s $456,000 McIntyre final.

Trusting my POLs, I never buy a win ticket on any horse I make over 6-1. Even then, my betting chart demands 6-1 go off at 9-1 for the bet to assure profit. This is a talented field where I estimate three horses, each at 6-1; a 14-per cent chance to win. Anyone could wind up my bet, especially since the morning line makes the favorite, Coaches Corner 9-5, which is likely to become an underlay, going off far less; that eliminates any bet on it for me.

Donegal Luther N at 9-2 is in play at 7-1. Those odds seem possible in this classy lot because there could be a major win-bet dump on the 9-5 morning line choice, giving Donegal Luther N overlay status. It would be alarming but should anything take the crowd off Coaches Corner, 7-2 would make him a major overlay on my POL.

The three 6-1 shots are hard to separate and if Coaches Corner is an overwhelming favorite, that is, well beneath my 29-per cent chance to win, the 4, 5, and 6 horses may all promise better than 9-1 in which case I would not wager on any of them. Their estimations surely expel betting any of the trio.

In order of my POL evaluations and the prices I need to present a valuable win bet, here are the top two win bet possibilities:

Donegal Luther N — 9-2 — wager at 7-1 up

Coaches Corner — 5-2 — wager at 7-2 up

MGM URSULA MCINTYRE SERIES FINAL

Louies Girl N charts to suck up the most bucks in the win pool in the Grade 2 $456,000 McIntyre final for 3 and up female pacers, and that is a tough situation for anyone writing a POL. Assigning the Per Engblom trained mare a whopping 1-1 (50 per cent chance to win) the seven others have to share the other 50 per cent.

I am comfortable giving Tarapasta a 6-1 line but that takes another 14 points away from our 100-per cent pie. With only 64 points left for the other six, it is difficult to imagine any of them nearing a valuable bet. Perhaps Coastal Babe A could tag a 6-1 along with Tarapasta but that seems to be more a hopeful line than a mathematic badge.

In order of my POL evaluations and the prices I need to present a valuable win bet, here are the top three win bet possibilities:

Louies Girl N — 1-1 — wager at 2-1 up

Tarapasta — 6-1 — wager at 9-1 up

Coastal Babe N — 6-1 — wager at 9-1 up

May the odds be with you.