Odds and ends: BDHC members have questions
by John Berry
Anybody who bets on our beloved horses becomes a member of our BDHC (Broken Down Horseplayers Club).
Some members have been in this distinguished club for many, many years (66 years for me) and they tend to have questions here and there about all the nuances that happen from set post times to today’s drag when the gate opens and the bell rings signaling “off” time and no more bets.
Here are a couple of the more interesting ones we’ve tackled in this Mane Attraction.
The first question is from M.P.
“If most of the money is bet during the time the [betting] window’s open, what might be the cause of a horse’s odds going from, say, 15-1 down to 6-1 after the start of a race?” he said.
Actually, the vast majority of wagering on our equine athletes is in the final stages of the betting — a minute or so — and the tote board could take as long as the “normal” 45 second cycle to post the final odds.
That’s when all of the final bets are dumped in the system and that’s exactly when the significant odds changes occur.
Like it was mentioned in the last Mane Attraction, if you see a significant bump downward such as 6-1 down to 9-5 or similar, it could very well increase the value of wagers on other horses — so one huge downward tick might be a boon to the other entrants and their odds.
The new phenomenon of algorithm betting — explained below — may play a huge roll in the betting pools and these algorithm bets might just benefit the non-favorites since favorites lose 60-65 per cent of the time.
Algorithm bets are automated systems that are based on statistics and data to predict value driven opportunities by analyzing an overwhelming number of points including past performances, drivers (or jockeys), trainer statistics, weather, and historical situations, whereas the average BDHC punter is looking over a program that judges performances over a limited period of time, maybe, even, just a few days.
Algorithm bets also take away any bias that we, as horseplayers, tend to see, such as a beautiful grey horse on the track or one that may look a bit iffy in its warm-up — which may, indeed, be a negative in algorithm betting.
There are modeling techniques used in this form of betting, as well, the system attempts to find true probability against the posted odds.
That leads us to the next question.
HRU reader Luke the Pan Man asked, “What is your opinion of the morning line in horse racing?”
Personally, I LOVE IT!
I love it because you, as well as other BDHC members, can take advantage of miscalculated morning lines.
All pari-mutuel tracks have a magic number, which is determined by the takeout on win wagering.
That magic number may be as low as 118 or as high as 127.
In making a morning line, each horse is assigned a number of points, i.e., 3-1 equals 25 points because 3+1 = 4 and, then, 4 divided into 100 equals 25, so a 3-1 morning line equals 25 points of the magic number.
The magic number is the total number of points of all the listed horses in a race less the takeout percentage to bring the number down to as close to 100 per cent as possible — the net payout available to the winners.
An example of this would be, if a track has a 19 per cent takeout for win wagering, the magic number would be 123 because 19 per cent of 123 equals 23.27, bringing the net pool payout to 99.63 per cent, about as close to 100 as possible, the remainder known as breakage.
Some morning lines are done by computer and some by the human hand.
The morning line is only valid if it can be achieved on a tote board.
It looks like most morning lines are trying to show who the logical winner might be.
My Mane Attraction philosophy is that the morning should show where the money will flow and not, necessarily, which horse will win.
And there lies your advantage, coupled with the fact that, if you are on track or have a very large screen television, you can visualize your selection for soundness in the post parade.
Yes, if the professional morning line odds maker does it by his own hand, he or she has the advantage of watching every single horse take every single step in every race and see things the average fan might not see.
If it is done by computer, all of that visualized information advantage is lost with the computer assigning the morning line odds on past performance lines.
A disadvantage, of course, is that the morning line is prepared a couple of days in advance so the morning line odds maker can’t use the post parade to pass that info along to the patron.
Here are the points for a few “odds” that are common in the morning line: 15-1 = 6.25, 10-1 = 9.09, 6-1 = 14.38, 9-2 = 18.18, 7-2 = 22.22, 5-2 = 28.57, 8-5 = 38.46, and 1-1 = 50.
I have seen horses that are 15-1 in the program morning line and as low as 3-1 on my personal morning line. Just remember to do your own morning line first before even looking at the one in the program as that may influence you in changing your mind.
I have seen it the other way, as well, as the early morning-line favorite is at 5-2 and is 8-1 on mine.
Most of you BDHC punters have been at this a long time and your opinion is as worthy as theirs.
Finally, I have seen a whole slew of commentary on the passing of Carmine Abbatiello, just about all of it very complimentary but one or two others in a weak attempt at being the devil’s advocate, including a comment from Jerry L. that he didn’t travel out of the Roosevelt-Yonkers circuit.
Soooo, here’s my answer to Jerry L.
Abbatiello did more in popularizing harness racing throughout his career than could ever be imagined.
After his Port Richmond High School days in Staten Island, he went right into the sport, his “Harvard” education concerning harness racing was from his older brother, Anthony (Tom or Tommy to his friends) and that education lasted eight years, at which time Carmine opened his public stable.
He was winning races years before graduating “Summa cum laude” under Anthony’s tutelage with his very first win in 1957 at the age of 19; even finishing in the top 25 in dash wins in 1962 finishing that year just $2 shy of $100,000 in purse earnings.
Yes, Carmine was so popular that the fans named him “The Red Man” as his dominance on that local circuit was undeniable.
As standardbred owner Allan G. recalled, “For every horse in a prestigious stakes race, there are thousands of owners that were kept in business because of The Red Man.
“Didn’t matter if they paced or trotted in 2:02 or 2:05, when we got the checks, the time wasn’t on it, just some nice numbers in back of a dollar sign.”
While his skills kept countless owners afloat in a difficult vocation to show profits, they reached far beyond that closely knit RR-YR circuit as he not only won driving titles there, he also won titles while prominent at Monticello, Freehold, and The Meadowlands.
Year after year after year, he was in the top 10 in wins and, in many instances — 15 — he was in the top 10 in purse earnings for owners, enriching them to the tune of $50 million dollars.
And, when he delved out of his supposed personal comfort zone competing in overnight events, he proved he could handle himself in the elite races, as well.
From the prestigious George Morton Levy Memorial with Newt Lobell (1981) and Curragh (1988) to the Sheppard Pace with All In One (1974) and Smooth Fella (1975) to the Su Mac Lad and the Dygert Memorial with Manfred Hanover (both in 1986), and let’s not forget Smartest Remark in the Meadowlands Pace consolation that same year, these were just a handful of stakes wins in the company of the elite.
Throughout his career, he plied his trade against the best drivers in the sport — Herve Filion, Buddy Gilmour, “Toothpick” Del Insko, Billy Haughton, the Dancers and dozens and dozens more — and remained at the top for over a quarter century.
Confident beyond words, he said to me many years ago, “Besides my brother, Buddy Regan played a role in any success I have had.”
Carmine added with a smile, “He is a great trainer and I am a great driver, so it was a really nice match.”
Recalling his exploits in the elite Schaefer Beer winner’s circlecommercial from many years ago, it’s sad to see The Red Man silenced, but, surely, this day, he’s in the most elite circle above.
May The Horse Be With Carmine!
