It’s time to take tote data public

Having a fully open and auditable view of tote data would greatly aid in much needed transparency and consumer confidence.

by Brett Sturman

In race 12 a couple of Fridays ago at The Meadowlands (Jan. 2), a horse named Ourmomentntime showed odds of 3-5 – deservingly so – nearing the start of the race. In a normal run-up to the start, he may very well have gone off at odds even shorter than that, but instead Ourmomentntime broke stride more than 15 seconds before the start of the race.

As a result, a horse that might have gone off at 3-5 or even 2-5, drifted all the way up to 9-5 in the closing odds. And by extension, race winner Hermoso Rey who offered at odds at 8-1 seconds before the start wound up paying just 5-1 in the end.

The reason in this case for the late change in odds is obvious, but it would still be of interest to know exactly how late cancellations affected final pricing. How many dollars were canceled in those last few seconds, what were the size of the bets that were canceled, were these retail cancellations or computer assisted wagering (CAW) cancellations – questions like that.

Where this type of data becomes even more valuable are in all those instances that are less explainable. Is it just coincidence that horses that end up on the lead often seem to go from 3-1 to 7-5 while that same type of horse that doesn’t leave off the gate goes from 5-2 to 5-1? No matter the reason for it, noticeable late odds changes continue to be a major detriment to overall believability and trust in the product. As with many other aspects in the sport right now, transparency is demanded.

I’m almost embarrassed to draw this parallel for how unfeasible it would be anytime soon, but compare tote technology and the way so much industry data is kept as “proprietary” to the way cryptocurrency transactions are tracked. In most crypto, every single transaction is recorded permanently and publicly in what’s called a blockchain, where anyone can view complete transaction histories. Imagine a world where instead of relying on the restrictions that come with legacy private tote systems, all race data lived publicly where every wager would be permanently auditable.

Short of that future dream state, why shouldn’t tote companies as they exist today not make wagering data public? I’ve seen times over the years where part of this data actually has been made available on special request from racetrack management. In one example, it was to prove and to promote a winning Pick 5 ticket structure that was hit by a common individual on a small budget rather than a CAW. It didn’t show any personal identifying information – which it shouldn’t – but simply information regarding the wager itself and timestamp. That’s really all we’re looking for in these circumstances.

Doing this same thing but having it be something any of us could access would go such a long way in establishing credibility in the wagering product. Then, all the things today such as late-flash odds drops wouldn’t feel like such a major conspiracy because then everyone would know exactly what happened. It would be massively easier to “trust the system” because then there is open visibility into how it actually is working each race.

The reason why this has never — and unfortunately probably won’t ever — happen is purely political and business related. Data throughout the sport continues to be monetized rather than shared. You can’t even look up race charts onustrotting.comwithout the disclaimer that wagering payouts are sourced under license with the tote company. I’d venture a guess that CAW groups too would consider their wagering histories as proprietary, plus already benefit from its informational edge.

But also, if such tote data were made public, it might also show just how much of an advantage certain groups have. We saw earlier in the year the dramatic impact to handle when CAW wagering was pulled back briefly from The Meadowlands. Who knows what it could expose if every day retail customers saw the advantage that automated wagering has, especially in the final seconds leading to a race?

To me, though, this is all the more reason why access to this data is needed. It speaks directly to the integrity and fairness of the product. There’s already a massive perception issue when it comes to not only the CAWs but also “conspiratorial” matters such as insider access and past-posting – neither of which I’d rule out as happening, too, at times. With this data publicly available it would eliminate all such questions.

Perhaps what could be done as a compromise is for tote companies to release some information in certain situations. For example, releasing a second-by-second pool summary for the final 30 seconds of wagering in a race where the winner’s odds dropped over 30 per cent in that timeframe. That way, there is at least a minimal level of transparency while at the same time protecting some of the more sensitive transactional data.

At an even higher level, there’s discussion all the time of what harness racing needs to do to attract new fans and for purposes of this column, new bettors. What better way to do so than to embrace modern technology and allow similar access to data seen in other realms of investing and wagering? It’s not that any of us are looking for an edge (even though it would be useful to analyze race data and see how pools have moved), but more importantly just to validate from a wagering standpoint that the sport works the way we’re told it does.