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Pondering the unexplainable when it comes to ages, gaits, and genders

by Brett Sturman

This year’s racing season was full of records and firsts. Some of these were accomplished by such a degree and in unique circumstances, that they challenge traditionally held standards.

It left me pondering a few key questions.

WHY HAVE PACERS ADVANCED FASTER THAN TROTTERS?

I’ve already written twice this year about the unprecedented speed of the 2-year-old pacing group, where the early and season-long speed from this group has been something never seen before. To summarize briefly, the three fastest 2-year-old pacers ever have all come this year.

It includes the fastest male Odds On Mr Mamba (1:47.4) and fastest filly Loua Dipa (1:48). Beau Jangles is suddenly the fifth fastest 2-year-old of all-time and Brandon Blvd is 10th, making half of the 10 fastest freshmen ever all from this year. If you extend it to last year, you then include Sippinonsearoc, Looksgoodinloulou, D A Love Boat, Fallout, Louprint, who is followed right behind by Melillo from this year, you now have 11 out of the 14 fastest 2-year-olds from just the last two seasons alone.

This all leads to a burning question about trotters.

Compared to the pacers, the fastest trotters have remained relatively steady over the past 10 years or so. Still ranked No. 1 on that is the freakish 2-year-old Mission Brief, whose 1:50.3 record was taken back in 2014. While no one has bested Mission Brief since that time on the trotting side, there have been 18 pacers that have bettered Sweet Lou’s then-record in 2011. Even filly trotter Cooler Schooner is still hanging on in seventh despite her mark being taken in 2013, and Walner rounds out the top 10 from a mark nine years ago. Most of the pacers from that era are knocked way down.

With 11 of the top 14 pacers being established in just the last two seasons, only two of the top 14 fastest 2-year-old trotters have occurred within the last two seasons (both in 2025 with Mr Big Spender and Apex, the latter being a colt out of Mission Brief). In fairness, the 15th-20th trotters all have indeed occurred in the last two seasons, but it doesn’t change the overall disparity of most pacers being recent and most trotters being spread out.

If you accept the premise, what then could be the explanation? Perhaps it’s due in part to the trotter being more of a work of art than a science. And that no matter the types of advancements over the years, there’s a physical limit as to just how fast they can progress.

I posed a similar question to Jimmy Takter back in a 2020 column that dealt with younger trotters having success against their elders at better rates than do pacers. In that context, I summarized his responses to being that the trotting gait is based more on technique — and as such — genetic and physical improvements become less emphasized. It’s quite possible that assessment, which seems as good as any, was prophetic for what’s occurred between the pacers and trotters since that time.

WILL A 3-YEAR-OLD PACER EVER WIN THE FANDUEL OPEN PACE?

The 12-year history of the end of year TVG-now-FanDuel Championships has never produced a 3-year-old winner in the Open Pace. Nuances between the trotters and pacers as hypothesized in the prior question are held here as well when looking first at just the number of 3-year-old trotters that attempt to take on older compared to the 3-year-old pacers that do so.

Far more 3-year-old trotters have attempted the FanDuel races over the years than their pacing counterparts, which in itself speaks to the belief that trotters natively stand a better chance against older foes. The 3-year-old trotting winners include What The Hill and Tactical Landing, but many others have attempted it including Six Pack, Bar Hopping, Tactical Approach, the filly, Bond, and it’s possible I could be missing one or two others.

On the pacing side, two weeks ago Miki And Minnie became the second 3-year-old filly pacer to win in the FanDuel Mares Open, following the success of Chris Ryder barnmate Twin B Joe Fresh who won the race as a 3-year-old in 2023.

That success is yet to have occurred on the male side, where those older horses are built differently. Two years ago, Confederate came into the FanDuel Open Pace as the No. 1 rated horse in the sport, but the seasoned, battle tested rivals proved too much. The same could be said for when Captaintreacherous attempted in the inaugural race back in 2013. I don’t believe any other 3-year-old male pacer has attempted the FanDuel Open Pace, and there’s probably a reason for it.

It’s one of those things that’s hard to explain because after all there shouldn’t be much of a difference between a horse about to turn 4 racing against other older rivals, but maybe there’s a psychological component there too. Take Louprint as a hypothetical example from this year. Let’s say he entered the FanDuel in the same form that won him the North America Cup or established his 1:46.3 mark this year. If put up against these free-for-all warriors like Ervin Hanover, Ken Hanover, Captain Albano, Maximus Miki, and the rest of them, it just seems like an awfully difficult race to transition into, doesn’t it?

I do love whenever it’s attempted though, and maybe it’ll happen one day, but it feels like it would take a special 3-year-old against a susceptible older division to do it.

CAN LATE-SEASON 2-YEAR-OLDS SUCCEED AGAINST OLDER?

This question seems admittedly contradictory to the one just discussed in that if 3-year-olds can’t beat the free-for-allers, then how can a 2-year-old beat anyone. But lately, 2-year-olds have performed well in races against 3-year-olds and not just at the most introductory levels.

It’s not uncommon of course for 2-year-olds to be included in races with 3- or even 4-year-olds in a nw1 race at some of the smaller tracks, where the lesser maturity of the young horses is offset by the lack of any winning record from the older horses. But there’s been notable 2-year-olds at The Meadowlands over the past few weeks that have shown the gap between a late season freshman and a still developing 3-year-old may not be as vast as it’s believed to be.

The Exit 16W pop-up series at that track has pitted together 2- and 3-year-old geldings who were n/w of $20,000 lifetime as of a month ago. A couple of the 2-year-olds in the series raced well and that includes one by the name of Lastdrivedownmain, who unfortunately didn’t get the cleanest trip in the series final last week but posted two straight 1:52.1 timed miles in the first two legs; one of those in which he missed winning by a neck.

The most impressive 2-year-old against older performance though goes to the eventual Governor’s Cup winner, Gentleman’s Club. Three weeks ago, on Nov. 8, he was the lone 2-year-old against a pretty decent w2-nw5 field. In that race, he brushed to the lead through a half of :54.3 and held well for the win in a time of 1:50.2 at odds of 6-1. That win was so impressive considering the manner and time in which he beat all older foes, but despite that, he was overlooked the following week when back in against only 2-year-olds where he raced with similar tactics and lasted in the $334,000 Governor’s Cup to win and pay over $28 for doing so.

As times continue to evolve, so do the horses across all different characteristics and how they match up against one another compared to how they once did.