Yearling speculation game

by Trey Nosrac

As the yearling sales wind down and our eyes refocus after two months of catalog reading, Pathway browsing, sales-video watching, and pretending we know what we’re doing, it is now time for reflection on the strange and addictive world of yearling shopping.

I planned to assemble a panel of potential buyers and ask them to predict the price when the hammer fell on a few select yearlings and then compare their numbers to those of artificial intelligence. I imagined the whole thing as a game show, a mashup of Jeopardy! and The Price Is Right. Possibly tape a pilot episode.

Alas, like many of my plans, it fell victim to unforeseen circumstances entirely within my control. Each time I asked my AI assistant for tips on creating a video of a game show, we would get caught up in long philosophical debates about the future of television. Then Siri chimed in. You know, rabbit holes. So, you will need to use your imagination.

MC offstage: “For those tuning in for the first time, here’s how the game works. Each contestant reviews the pedigree and sales video of a yearling and submits a sales price along with a brief rationale. Closest prediction wins. Simple as that!”

Cue the audience to chant: “Price it RIGHT! Price it RIGHT!” [Insert trophy spin and ‘bling’ sound effect.]

Host (dramatic voice): “Contestants, are you ready? Who can read the catalog better than anyone else? Let’s find out!”

Audience: (cheering, stomping, chanting)

Host: “Alright then… the yearling about to head into the ring is – drumroll please!”

Cue: (timpani roll, flashing lights)

Host: “Hip #39!”

Audience: (Cheers as all view the sales video of this yearling, followed by a pedigree page)

Offstage announcer: “Hip #39 is a strapping colt named Midnight Drive. Eligible to race in Pennsylvania and Kentucky. Contestants, you have five minutes to research and write down your sales predictions on your card. Viewers at home and in the studio audience, you can use the next five minutes to make your own predictions, but the clock is ticking. We will be back after these commercial messages.”

(Cut to commercial package)

Host: “Welcome back. Let’s start with Artie, also known as ChatGPT5. Invisible, incorruptible, less than 5 human years old, and the one who never sleeps! AI Artie (cue boos from audience). Artie, please turn your card over.”

Artie (robotic voice): “I have a voice but no arms.” (Audience laughs).

Host: “Trey, would you assist, please?”

Artie (robotic voice): “My predicted sales price is $142,000. This colt has an elite maternal family, a proven sire, dual eligibility — a key factor — and has been raised at a premier farm.”

Host: “Thank you, Artie. Now, after artificial intelligence, let’s hear from natural stupidity. Trey, your turn. Trey is an international raconteur, snooker fan, and part-time racing pundit (cue mixed applause and booing). Turn over your card so we can see your predicted price.”

Trey: “I’m going with $53,000. The dual eligibility doesn’t move me much. Most 2-year-olds race six to eight times – how many states do they need? Plus, I’m a trotting guy. Every pacer I glance at takes a discount.”

Host: “Now, Linda from Louisiana, a legal assistant, mother of two, and wife of a part-time harness trainer. Linda, your number, please.”

Linda: “$29,000. I liked him, but he looked a bit small on video. Oddly, I might’ve gone higher without dual eligibility. Sometimes one-state eligibility leads to easier racing.”

Host: “Quite a spread. Herman, close out this round. Herman is a gambler and a heart surgeon, a combination that is both interesting and unusual. Herman, what is your number?”

Herman (gruffly): “$73,000. Not as high as Mister Roboto here, but people need more than five minutes to evaluate a yearling. Until you have experts inspect the horse, this whole game is stupid.”

Host: “Ahem… that would be a different game.” (Audience laughter) “Now let’s see who came closest. Let’s go live to the auction!”

(The feed moves to the sales ring where Hip #39 is coming into the ring. When the bidding ends and the gavel falls, a large placard with a dollar sign and a number drops from the ceiling with confetti and fanfare.)

Host: “The colt Midnight Drive sold for $18,000. Linda from Louisiana — with our lowest predicted price — takes the win and the Golden Horseshoe Trophy.”

(Run Credits over a video collage of clips that show horses in motion, faces, races, auctioneers, confetti, and the winner excitedly walking into an onstage winner’s circle). End of episode.

The real people and real AI in this quartet were not close on this yearling price. Perhaps the moral of this vignette is that in a yearling auction, anything can happen.

I can imagine a future year when a new round of Yearling Price Wars pits breeders, agents, trainers, and AI squaring off under the bright lights.