Lessons from Leucadia: the road to success sans picking winners
by Frank Cotolo
A few columns ago I revealed many of the results from my extensive 1990s’ American Turf Monthly (ATM) magazine’s active handicappers’ and bettors’ survey. Its responses from punters across North America explained theories and practices learned through reading various how-to-handicap texts. Less reported were calculated financial plans resulting from handicapping.I quoted Aristotle: “The purpose of knowledge is action; not knowledge.” But what if the knowledge provoking the action is lacking accuracy? Then clearly: “Knowledge is only worthy if it is complemented by reasonable and valuable action.”
Something lacking in the majority of texts about pari-mutuel play is “handicapping has nothing to do with betting.” Yet handicapping is useless if it is not strictly measured in order to find the correct horse — as Shakespeare might put it — “to bet or not to bet.” That is truly the question.At the base level of learning pari-mutuel play all beginners accept the common and incorrect definition of handicapping as “the process of picking a winner.” In the 2020s a beginner might ask AI the definition and read one which only flirts with the truth. Here is Microsoft’s AI Co-Pilot definition:“Handicapping horse races is the process of analyzing various factors that influence the outcome of a race to make informed betting decisions. It involves studying a horse’s past performances, race conditions, and key metrics like speed figures, pace analysis, and trainer or jockey statistics. Successful handicapping requires a mix of data-driven insights and intuition to identify potential winners or value bets.”What a perverted definition. It emphasizes a need to analyze a race’s contestants by using academic knowledge but does not attempt to suggest how to ‘make informed betting decisions.” It merely rambles: “handicapping requires a mix of data-driven insights and intuition to identify potential winners or value bets.”What are value bets, and how does one include intuition? What does any of that mean?
The actual knowledge related to handicapping is how it affects the handicapper’s wagering. The most intelligent handicappers need present value bets and at times demand passing all wagers when none offer deserving profits.Then what is the correct definition of horse race handicapping?
Handicapping a horse race is the act of measuring the chances of each horse to win the particular event by assigning them percentage values using a 100-per cent “pie.” The assigned percentages have nothing to do with picking a winner and all to do with discovering the best chances for a winning bet once the public contributes to the betting pools.
Handicapping knowledge strives for the accuracy of writing a personal odds line [POL] and the action is betting on the best valued contestant when compared to the majority opinions of your true foes: the rest of the betting public.Yes, this is work. A lot of work. It is near impossible to streamline the process. And how terrible does it feel when all of the work leads to not being able to bet on a race? It feels futile and unproductive though it is, in the long-run, a grace to the power of your betting dollar.One of the smartest professional players I met said, “Remember, when you pass on a race, you win a race.” It takes time and serious gambling experience to understand that wisdom.Back in the late 1980s I found myself in the position to take on serious pari-mutuel gambling experiences. I decided to devote the bulk of my consciousness supported by money earned on the emotional landscape of a professional pari-mutuel bettor; wrestling with the math and mania of the betting public to survive. Like a distorted Jack Kerouac I hit the road; I left Hollywood and I headed south to the border.
I settled alone in Leucadia, Encinitas, San Diego. The small community stretched along much of the southern length of the Pacific Ocean coastline and it was quaint and quiet. Amtrak trains rolled through the middle of town. The Greek-named village was founded by psychics. There was outdoor dining and a book store offering literature outside the sphere of physical science. My one-bedroom apartment was clean and cheap. Especially since it was a short stroll to the radiant beach spreading into nearby Mexico; and it was a short drive to Del Mar Racetrack, “Where the surf meets the turf.”The ocean-front thoroughbred meet was held within a vast Spanish-style hacienda during sun-soaked days and Los Alamitos harness racing was simulcast in a cool indoor cabana after sundown. All of this and I was falling in love with a local gal who embraced my nonconformist lifestyle. It was indeed a poetic paradise.
The atmosphere was decorated with adventure. The occupational challenges were demanding but my tools to maintain a professional gambling lifestyle were authentic and exact. I was comfortable living with bare essentials and prepared to spend countless hours using the math and emotional muscle it would take to survive.
