Intrigue abounds throughout Hambletonian Day card
In addition to the 100th running of the $1 million Hambletonian trotting classic, new and renewed rivalries take center stage throughout the ١٦-race card bonanza.
by Brett Sturman
Jumping right into it with the main event, which goes as race 12, nearly all the pre-race Hambletonian talk this week was which Marcus Melander-trained colt — Maryland or Super Chapter — would Dexter Dunn select to drive for Saturday’s (Aug. 2) final. In a post on X Wednesday morning by Maryland co-owner Courant, it was confirmed that Dunn had made his choice to drive Maryland.
If you’re looking at the decision based on each horse’s record this year or any of the contender lists or rankings, then Dunn’s decision may seem curious. But if you read between the lines, the signs were mostly always there that Maryland is where Dunn would have ended up.
For starters, this identical scenario played out in the Empire Breeders Classic at Vernon in mid-June. In that race where Dunn had the choice of the two, he elected for Maryland. Now granted, that race was just Maryland’s first race of the year and Super Chapter’s second, though at that time Maryland was entering the season of a couple shakier qualifiers and Dunn still stayed, as expected since Maryland was coming off a 2-year-old divisional-winning campaign.
The question then is, what has changed since that race that would have altered Dunn’s decision to be any different this time? Yes, Super Chapter has continued to win as Maryland has continued to be second-best including that Empire Breeders Classic and in each race since, but during that time there hasn’t been any single moment where you could say definitively that Super Chapter has become that much better — if better at all — than Maryland.
From a handicapping perspective, Dunn’s decision doesn’t really change anything. Super Chapter was installed as the 5-2 morning line favorite the day before Dunn’s decision was announced, but even if the decision had been known at that time, Super Chapter would still have been made the programmed favorite – as he should be and has to be. Personally, if you liked Super Chapter before, then you should still like him now as Dunn’s choice may inflate his odds ever so slightly. Similarly, if you liked Maryland, then I suppose there’s some comfort in knowing that Dunn’s pick validates your preference. Of course, this year’s Hambletonian is far more than a two-horse race.
Last week’s fastest elimination was won by Nordic Catcher S by a nose over Maryland in 1:50.3 where he had it his way unchallenged on the lead for most of the mile. The fascinating note here is that he’s out of the pacing mare That Woman Hanover, by Somebeachsomewhere. That Woman Hanover was a winner of stakes in Pennsylvania at 2, tested the stakes waters at 3, and took a mark at 4 of 1:50. From four prior foals bred to pacing sires, Nordic Catcher S is the result of the first breeding to a trotter (Six Pack). That Woman Hanover was also bred the following year to Six Pack. The resulting 2-year-old, Nordic Dancer S, raced last week at The Meadowlands in an New Jersey Sires Stakes (NJSS) division, well beaten but still race-timed in 1:55.4.
In the span of one week, Go Dog Go has gone from one of the top contenders in the race to seemingly an afterthought for the final. He definitely did not have the same punch last week in his elimination while tracking the ideal cover of Maryland and now lands post 10 for the final. He’ll come into the race with a morning line of 10-1 and I’d think his final odds will be well higher than that; winning doesn’t seem impossible if he brings his best. Similarly, maybe because he prevailed in his elimination but just narrowly over a couple of longer chances, Emoticon Legacy looks to offer an inflated price now as well.
My pick? I feel like it’s going to be a trendy one, but it’ll be Maximus Mearas S. I was looking forward to his season following his try in last year’s Breeders Crown when he was lunging late to the inside of Maryland. He has closed extremely well in both races this year, thus far. That one from his elimination last week was a real eye-catcher when closing in :26 to make up a ton of ground when wide and well back and couldn’t look any better heading into the final. He may need a favorable setup to help his cause but my sense is that he’ll be able to win if reasonably positioned turning for home.
The $500,000 Hambletonian Oaks looks much different than first suspected it would have looked at this time last week. Already missing top-rated filly Yo Tillie as she wasn’t nominated to the race, two other high-quality fillies in What A Bid Hanover and Lady Landia failed to make the final. Last year’s Goldsmith Maid champion What A Bid Hanover broke on separate occasions in her elimination, while the 2-year-old Breeders Crown winner Lady Landia wasn’t raced into contention in her elimination.
As a result, favoritism in the Oaks will likely go to Miss Belmar who up until June 13, had never won a race in nine career starts. But things change fast, and she’s since won three out of her next four including her elimination last week when two-moving to the lead to win by a safe enough but diminishing late margin. Starting next to Miss Belmar from post 2 will be Deja Blu who came through with a big turnaround in her elimination last week when closing in :26.1 to be making up ground fast against Miss Belmar. Deja Blu is out of Atlanta, who beat the boys on this day in the Hambletonian in 2018.
My selection in the race will be with Delaney Hanover. I felt last year she flashed potential as a 2-year-old and went overlooked in her elimination following a difficult trip second out this year in the Del Miller. Tracking down Champagne Problems last week, who lands post 9 for this race, Delaney Hanover came off cover from at least a few lengths down to erase the separation and to win going away nicely. Similar to the Hambletonian pick, it’s going to be Scott Zeron from post 5, hoping for a little bit of luck with the pace scenarios.
Some other thoughts going down the rest of the card in race order starting with race 5. Following the trend of stakes not being what they once were, this year’s Cane Pace drew only a field of six. Will The Meadowlands faithful give Madden Oaks more respect this time around after he was let go at almost 7-1 in the Pace? The recent Tioga race where he prevailed narrowly in only a time of 1:52 doesn’t seem exciting to get behind off that, but how much stock is that one race worth when we’ve all seen what he’s done at Woodbine Mohawk Park and The Meadowlands since June. Captain Optimistic who bypassed the Adios following the Meadowlands Pace, returned to winning ways last week in a race where it would have been more shocking if he did not win; gets a third crack now at Madden Oaks. Papis Pistol was well supported in the Pace and then didn’t seem at his best when being swarmed late in his Adios elimination. Manolete looked like a sure-fire winner mid-stretch last week when engaging the nine-for-nine in 2025 Smooth Dream, but was somehow repelled and came up a nose short.
In the John Steele Memorial (race 6), the sharpest horse at the track right now, Elista Hanover, moves on from the Graduate and Hambletonian Maturity and gets a shot at the very best older trotting mares including Call Me Goo. Fellow rival and 4-year-old to Elista Hanover, Warrawee Michelle has been trading punches with that rival over the last few and she isn’t without a chance either and starts from the second tier. Another one to note is Bravo Angel S who followed up that unbelievable close two back with another super rally from nowhere last week; we’ll see if she can carry those late theatrics from the Miss Versatility races into this one.
In the 2-year-old trotting New Jersey Sire Stakes finals, Southwind Chaska is an easy one to root for in the $225,000 fillies’ event (race 7). Overachieving as just a $15,000 yearling with a relatively non-descript pedigree, she’s started her career off two-for-two against far pricier ones and has been convincing late in both of those wins. The 2-year-old colts go later in the card as race 13 and all eyes there will be on potential star in the making Diabolic Hill. Unbeaten, he looked in a world of his own when winning last week and now moves from post 10 all the way down to the rail. Among those trying to spring the upset will be Apex, a $525,000 yearling out of Mission Brief, who was second against the colts in the 2015 Hambletonian.
The $300,000 John Cashman Memorial (race 11) pits divisional leader Periculum against many of the familiar free-for-all trotting names including Hillexotic. Hillexotic was regarded as a longshot when these two raced in the Crawford at the end of June, but those two races from The Meadows look awfully good. That most recent one in 1:50.3 set an all-age track record and was just a tick off the fastest mile ever trotted anywhere on a five-eighths mile track.
It’s not particularly a great wagering price, but it’s nice to see the renewed rivalry between Sylvia Hanover and Twin B Joe Fresh. When finishing third last out at Plainridge following the unsustainable pace, it was the first time in over two years that Twin B Joe Fresh finished worse than second. Catching the eye somewhat is Kobe’s Gigi while making her second start now for Burke; she was closing well last out following speed and a troubled trip in the Dorothy Haughton.
