In Hambletonian and Oaks eliminations, fortune favored the brave
by Brett Sturman
When eliminations were drawn for last Saturday’s (July 26) Hambletonian and Oaks eliminations, I was in the camp lamenting the number of entries that forced more, smaller elimination fields. But after watching what transpired in how those elimination races went, I’m now firmly in the belief that except for tracks with passing lanes, smaller elimination fields where the top three spots are being contested are more dramatic than larger elimination fields where the top five finishers move on.
The initial logic is that following normal situations, full fields produce better wagering opportunities, which of course is true. In elimination races, though, where half or more of the field gets through, the paradox in fuller fields becomes a lesser quality of racing as more spots to advance are made available.
Driver Scott Zeron described the dynamic perfectly to me in a column from last year in the 2024 North America Cup eliminations. Zeron said at that time, “For me, having to finish in the top three wildly changes the approach… In the top three, it makes it where a 2-hole trip sounds good, but sometimes you might never get out. You’re going to see a lot more aggressive drives from drivers, and having to be in the top two last year was even more intimidating. It’s certainly something that you’re conscious of.”
Beginning with the Hambletonian, 21 entries forced three eliminations of seven whereas one fewer entrant would have allowed for two full fields of 10. Maybe common sense after all, if you go by the percentages, but drivers should be forced to drive more aggressively when only 43 per cent (three out of seven) make the final as opposed to when 50 per cent (five out of 10 make the final), even though you might think, ‘How hard can it be to hit the board in a field of seven?’ Tougher than thought, in the first Hambletonian elimination.
In that race, shorter-priced contenders Meshuggah, Mr Mouton and Monserrate all ran into traffic issues and only Meshuggah was able to survive into the final by being the fourth-place finisher with the highest career earnings. In that elimination, all three of those horses left to secure early positions and were sitting second through fourth after race favorite Emoticon Legacy brushed to the lead. At that point, Meshuggah in fourth past the half elects to stay in while right on the back of Mr Mouton in the 3-hole and gets shuffled all the way back to last on the inside around the final turn. Just as Meshuggah stayed in from fourth, Mr Mouton stayed in as well from third and endured a similar shuffle to be in a poor position turning from home. Even Monserrate from the pocket wasn’t safe.
Through the stretch, Mr Mouton got off the cones and looked like he was raging with trot only to run up on the back of Emoticon Legacy and be blocked. Monserrate took a peek at the pylons but didn’t have room and then by the time he did wasn’t as strong as he may have been earlier. Meshuggah was fortunate to find a couple of seams when arriving back on the scene late in between horses. Beyond race winner Emoticon Legacy, who raced on the front, the second and third finishers came from the second and third-over positions.
Not everyone can be second-over and sometimes the inside trip does work out, but at what point do you decide as a driver that you’re going to take a chance and pull first over and let the chips fall where they may, rather than risk being locked in third to the inside or even worse fourth on the inside? I know the goal at these moments is solely to make the final, but the question should be if you’re not confident enough to finish in the top three by going first over, how are you going to be confident enough to win the entire thing the following week? At some point you just have to take a chance.
Trips didn’t play as much a factor in the other two Hambletonian eliminations as all the major players safely punched their ticket into this Saturday’s (Aug. 2) final, but the same couldn’t be said at all for the Hambletonian Oaks which produced carnage for the top ones.
In the first Oaks elimination that night, last year’s Breeders Crown champion Lady Landia went to post at odds of 2-5. For further context, she was making her second start of the year following her race prior where she closed in :26.3 in a time of 1:51.3 to be second only to Yo Tillie. So, by any reasonable account, the odds-on favoritism was justified.
At the start of the race, it didn’t seem like Svanstedt was too keen to leave with her, so Lady Landia took back to last in the field of seven. From there, she stayed to the inside, seemed to be running on the back of the horse in front of her which caused her to take further back and lose a couple of lengths, only to gather herself in the stretch and do all she could to close from a hopeless spot to be sixth. It seemed like she deserved better than that.
Compare that to the more aggressive drive in the same race from the longshot Sound Judgement. Driven with a purpose by Kevin Oscarsson, Sound Judgement left from post 6 immediately to the inside of Lady Landia, could have actually had a clean 2-hole early but elected to drive onto the lead before yielding to Champagne Problems, and utilized every inch of that pocket ride thereafter to hold on and finish in third by a nose. As a result, the 44-1 longshot will be rewarded with a chance at a share of the half million-dollar purse in the final.
Suddenly, fillies that weren’t on anyone’s radar a couple of weeks ago have chances in the upcoming Oaks final. That’s because not only did Lady Landia fail to qualify and the top rated 3-year-old filly trotter Yo Tillie isn’t Oaks eligible, but last year’s Goldsmith Maid winner and top Oaks prospect What A Bid Hanover broke stride twice in her elimination at 50 cents on the dollar.
The Hambletonian too, remains completely up for grabs at this point, though is not lacking star power. Super Chapter, Maryland and Emoticon Legacy remain top choices, Go Dog Go may have lost just a little bit of his luster Saturday but is still a top contender. Nordic Catcher S had it his own way in the elimination but still won in the fastest elimination time of 1:50.3, and Maximus Mearas S is rapidly crashing the party also and will attract play off his elimination close.
Those racing in their respective Hambletonian and Oaks finals this weekend have all earned their spots to be there – and maybe can even be further rewarded for continuing to race brave.
