The Hambletonian’s key-race status is a bettor’s delightful secret

by Frank Cotolo

The superlatives connected to describing the historic relevance of the Hambletonian flow internationally through its century of standardbred reporting. Those of us writing about it over the past few decades made it the center point of racing activity; especially inside the industry. It represents more than a measure of harness racing at its best. It defines the breed as the blood of the species is represented in every trotter competing.

However, it was never an affair exalted in style or character when it came to the professional harness racing bettor. The most serious punters saw it as the finest spectator harness race in the expanse of pari-mutuel scenery. They admired its quality and magnificence. But they did not support it with strong financial investments at the betting windows.

However, the Hambletonian is one of the few types of races essential for any adroit pari-mutuel bettor looking for profitable plays in the future. I learned this in the1980s when the brilliant horse race handicapper/author Mark Cramer introduced me to a rare and remarkable gambit for use in pari-mutuel wagering.

Although Cramer was a harbinger of gimmicks along with many other particular handicapping elements available to the public it was this maneuver — one that dates decades back with no official author — one that survived through the many wired minds in a spectrum of pari-mutuel bettors at tracks from coast to coast in North America, and one which circulated mostly among thoroughbred wagering circles, that remains a knack not to ignore.

I was never a gimmick bettor but this one has a unique element; it was a sterling “instant play” plan that always manages to produce a profit. And let us face it, doing next to no work at all to make money at the racetrack should get the attention of anyone spending time betting at a racetrack.

It is called ‘The Key Race Theory’ and it secures a mighty advantage for a bettor as well as it is the simplest handicapping analysis anyone can calculate.

Cramer explained the Key Race Theory with examples of its success before he defined the positively charged dense center of one. He presented me with horses over the course of many years from various thoroughbred races that hit the board and paid win and win/place and win/place/show prices after their appearances in their previous race.

That previous race is identified as a key race.

A key race is an anomaly; a deviation from the normal or common order or form or rule of a field of racehorses. It includes a group of ultra-superior performers. Whether it is a field of eight or 10 or more. It involves extraordinary talent that we define with imprecise data (call it class) and is not easily put into words.

It does not matter if it is a field of colts or fillies or mares or maidens or an older group competing on dirt or turf that are sprinting or routing or running or jumping for that matter. A key race field is a group that will race better than it may against one another than it may have ever raced. And no matter the finishing order it will assure each loser will present cash-worthy performances next time out. The future of its participants alone are its many gifts.

Coming out of a key race, said Mark, the losers are each instant plays: wagers requiring no handicapping effort. Why? Because no matter where any in a key race finishes, all of them are ultra-strong contenders in their next race. Maybe their next two.

Cramer kept mounds of old Daily Racing Forms and extracted billows of information from them, including key races producing across-the-board payoffs from their fields no matter the post and class and track conditions. Some prices were great. Some mediocre. But isn’t any price considered value for a “lock?” A sure thing? Absolutely. And key races produce the closest “sure things” to bet than any handicapping method provides.

I pursued searching to find key races in standardbred fields even though considering the natures of the breeds they would be tougher to identify. One day some years after Cramer’s influence I discovered harness racing’s greatest key race. It is the single most revered event of international harness racing seasons.

It is The Hambletonian.

The top sophomore trotters (with or without a filly or two) in any Hambletonian final field rebound to win and place or show with explosive consistency in their next two races. Especially the losers. They confirm the strength of the key-race theory by returning in their next race with strong performances. And they qualify as overlays at any price offered; some of which reflect the betting public’s lack of respect for being a contestant in the world’s greatest trotting event.

The 100th Hambletonian is guaranteed to predict profits for the bettor using the key-race theory.