The driver has a shot to break David Miller’s record of five Crown victories in a single year.

by Brett Sturman

The record for number of Breeders Crown wins in a single year is five, held by David Miller from the 2015 event at Woodbine Racetrack. If things hold relatively close to form, that number should be surpassed by Dexter Dunn two weeks from now.

Miller’s record of five wins has been elusive for those who’ve come close to matching it in recent years, which includes many times where the far more common number of four wins has been achieved. Dunn himself has notched four Breeders Crown wins twice in two of the last four years, reaching that number in 2022 and in 2020. Andrew McCarthy and Yannick Gingras also have won four times since Miller established the top benchmark.

In this year’s Breeders Crown at The Meadowlands where divisions with necessary eliminations will start at the end of this week, the ceiling seems high for the number of possible wins that Dunn could theoretically reach. Let’s break it down by categories of most to lesser likely wins.

LOCKS

Open Mare Trot, Open Mare Pace

Twin B Joe Fresh and Jiggy Jog S have been well documented all year long as the sports top two rated horses and were half of a four-horse sweep from Dunn on a Grand Circuit night at Dayton a few weeks ago. With both horses figuring to offer odds of no better than 10 cents on the dollar, these two are about as close to gimme’s as possible.

NOT LOCKS BUT CLEAR FAVORITES
2-Year-Old Colt Trot and 3-Year-Old Filly Pace

Maryland has really asserted himself at the top of the division over the last month and a half by consecutively storming through the Wellwood, Peter Haughton and then the Mohawk Million, that most recent of which came in a career best 1:52.3. He prepped for the Breeders Crown with a qualifier Thursday at The Meadowlands when he closed, as Dunn asked, to be second to a horse named Karinchak; a horse who was coming off a loss in a non-winner of 2 at Pocono and could be one to bet depending on where he goes next. My Girl EJ won the Breeders Crown last year for Dunn at 2 when upsetting Geocentric and has been one of the top fillies in the division all year. She most recently won the Glen Garnsey at Lexington in a career best of 1:48.1 over another top filly, Direction. There could be other threats that include Its A Love Thing and Rocket Deo, the latter of which upset her two races ago, but Dunn and My Girl EJ are going to head into their Crown event as the ones to beat.

LIKELY FAVORITES

Open Trot and 3-Year-Old Colt Pace

It looks like Dunn is going to head into the Breeders Crown with his choice in the Open Trot of either Winner’s Bet or Logan Park, and his biggest threat could be whichever of the two he ends up not driving. Winner’s Bet has been the more decorated horse throughout the season and Dunn has teamed up with him with a bunch of solid stakes wins and prepped most recently by opting to race in a plain open handicap race at The Red Mile in which he coasted. Logan Park though has come on extremely strong of late, especially in his last two which of no coincidence has come on the driver change to Dunn. Last Sunday he came from last to pass Periculum and won in a career best time of 1:49.2. I’m guessing Dunn would still opt for Winner’s Bet but we’ll see how things continue to shake out. In the 3-Year-Old Colt Pace, Dunn retained the drive on Mirage Hanover after driving him for the first time on Jug Day, and the result was a 1:46.3 win in his division of the Tattersalls Pace which was two full seconds quicker than the other division. This horse has been fast his entire career since the earliest days of his 2-year-old season and may be the “now” horse in a division that’s seen horses go through their ups and downs.

WITHIN REALMS OF DEFINITE POSSIBILITY

3-Year-Old Colt Trot, 3-Year-Old Filly Trot, Open Pace, 2-Year-Old Filly Pace, 2-Year-Old Filly Trot

Dunn will have options on different horses throughout these divisions so much of this is just speculation until entries come out, but here’s some possibilities. In the 3-Year-Old Colt Trot which seems as wide open as it’s been all year, I hope that Melander gives Vic Zelenskyy a chance in the Breeders Crown, who is eligible. I raved about him in last week’s column, and he didn’t disappoint with Dunn on Futurity Day, I think he’d be a real threat against the best if given the chance. Dunn may also have options in the division with Tony Adams S and Amazing Catch, though the road to win will still have to go through some variation of Karl, Highland Kismet or Sig Sauer.

In the 3-Year-Old Filly Trot Dunn should have a live drive with Date Night Hanover. She was the beaten favorite in the Filly Futurity last week and never really made inroads from post 10, though in fairness it wasn’t going to matter anyway as winner R Melina went one of the miles of the year in her win. Barring a supplement, the Breeders Crown 2-Year-Old Filly Pace will go without Chantilly who isn’t nominated. But at the same time, neither is Papi Grad, who Dunn drove most recently in her last two. Maybe Dunn’s best chance at this point goes with Miki And Minnie? Her recent qualifier at The Meadowlands was just fair, but all prior races have been excellent; owns a 1:49.4 mark having never finished worse than second in eight starts. In the 2-Year-Old Filly Trot, maybe Champagne Problems should be rated even in Dunn’s win probability than I’m giving her credit for; I just don’t have as solid a handle on this division as others. Regardless, the NJSS champion cruised most recently in her International Stallion Stakes division and will be out to make amends from her fourth-place finish in the Peaceful Way where she may have gone a little too quick early. Dunn also has Abuckabett Hanover in the Open Pace. The Dayton Derby champ from two back was beaten last out by the return and resurgence of a familiar foe in Bythemissal, but Dunn absolutely rates as good a chance as any with his drive in this division too.

2-YEAR-OLD COLT PACE

Dunn would have rated a fighting chance for a win in this division with American Son, but he isn’t Breeders Crown eligible. I’d imagine with availability, Dunn would pick up a possibly live drive by the final, though he didn’t have a drive in this division in the Metro Pace either.

With the top contenders throughout most divisions, including a couple that should be cinches, the record number of five wins seems like it would be Dunn’s floor. If other horses perform to expectations and with a little bit of luck thrown in, it’s not impossible that Dunn could make a number close to double the current record.