Like we witnessed on Mohawk Million night, if a trainer is going shoes off, the betting public must know.

by Dean Towers

In the minutes before the Elegantimage final on Saturday (Sept. 21) at Woodbine Mohawk Park we scanned the past performances. The Pick 5 pool was going to be north of $150,000 so it was a must play for die-hards.

The race appeared to go through the two chalk – Drawn Impression and R Melina. Two other contenders, French Champagne and Emoji Hanover, could be used, but they didn’t seem near as quick as the top two based on their elimination performances.

A few minutes later, thousands of bettors who wagered $500,000 plus into the race ripped up their tickets when the fourth choice, French Champagne, stormed home to take the chocolates.

That should be the end of the story, but we learned post-race that French Champagne received what many of us describe as the ultimate equipment change – she went barefoot. The problem, of course, was that no one knew because no one told anyone. The Svanstedt connections were fined $500, for what was probably just an honest oversight.

However, for years and years when something like this happens the industry just says, “Oh well” and turns the page.

They shouldn’t, because this story is much bigger than just an oversight.

The harness game has turned into a multi-leg wagering event where tens of millions are bet into Pick 4s, 5s and 6s. Why? High chalk hit-rates have value-seeking bettors looking for edges in these wagers; it reduces their takeout and offers them chances at a score. This has been going on for some time.

A shoe change to barefoot is the ultimate change for bettors playing these sequences to know about. In my view, it’s as predictive as a driver change from a hobby horse trainer with a 1987 Telstar to Yannick Gingras sitting in his brand new U.F.O. This change signals to a bettor that the horse is sound, coming into the race great, and the connections are going race their horse.

How effective is it? On Saturday, not only did French Champagne win the Elegantimage barefoot, but three races later – also in the same Pick 5 sequence, and also reported after the Pick 5 sequence started – Amazing Catch won without shoes and paid $41.

Yes, two legs of the Pick 5 were won by horses with a huge equipment change, and bettors didn’t know about it.

This isn’t a Svanstedt barn or Woodbine Mohawk Park problem, nor is this about whiny customers complaining about losing a bet.

For instance, I, and others, currently spend half our time looking at the scroll of The Meadowlands changes on a stakes night waiting for this news, or turning up a John Rallis interview, wondering if he’s going to ask a trainer the shoe question.

It should not be like this. And I believe it doesn’t have to be.

Back around 2009 I was with the Horseplayers Association of North America, and changes were reported differently and at different times, track by track (in the thoroughbred game). On a Saturday with dozens and dozens of tracks running, you never knew when your software would update posted changes. There was no rhyme or reason.

Our president, Jeff Platt, had a solution and contacted Equibase, the leader in data transmission for horse racing. Jeff suggested they contact tracks regarding the importance of the issue, and Equibase responded. Not long after there was not only better reporting so a customer could log into their ADW and get this information in real-time, but they added an RSS feed of changes, which could work automatically with all modern software. You could even get these changes via text on your mobile phone.

In my view, something like this has to happen for this phenomenon in harness racing.

My solution would look something like this:

An industry standard must be set where all equipment changes are disseminated to every ADW and across every track feed before race one. Many Pick 5s in this industry start on the first race of the night. Customers can not factor in an equipment or driver change after the sequence has already started.

In the case of going barefoot, we all know trainers have to warm up a horse before making that decision. But at the deadline for equipment changes, I’d propose they must declare they are thinking about going shoeless. This could be designated as “Possible No Shoes” on the equipment change list that’s sent out before Race 1. The bettors will account for this possibility, and know to watch for it later on in the card.

When the shoeing change does happen, it must be reported on both the in-house feed and ADW feeds and relayed by the hosts and analysts.

Any horse that went barefoot last time and is going barefoot again needs to be reported, as well. We can’t expect customers to know a horse went no shoes in his or her last race, because it’s not noted on the program.

Horse racing’s customers bet around $2 billion each year on the harness races, and at 20 per cent blended takeout, that’s works out to over $400 million in revenue. Not only does that supply purse money, it also tells politicians and others who hold the slot purse strings that this is a viable, popular sport.

The way the industry reports equipment changes means something to customers; ergo it means something to the industry itself. And lucky for us, it’s all fixable.