Superior seeds produce fairer fields.

by Debbie Little

Thanks to the seeding formula developed and implemented by the Hambletonian Society, the soonest the highly-anticipated rubber match between 2023’s top 2-year-old colts, Karl and T C I, could take place is Saturday (Aug. 3) at The Meadowlands, should both qualify for the Hambletonian final.

As with all sports, no one wants to see what is believed to be the marquee matchup play out before the finals.

It was with just that in mind that in 1997 the Hambletonian Society — more specifically, their then executive vice president Tom Charters — came up with seeding for America’s Trotting Classic.

“I have to give Tom Charters credit, he came up with the formula,” said Hambletonian Society president/chief executive officer John Campbell. “I take no credit for that whatsoever, but I do feel very strongly that it’s better than trying to seed them just by somebody’s opinion. It’s based on data and sometimes data works out perfectly and sometimes it doesn’t.”

Campbell was still driving the year the seeding formula was adopted — he won a record fifth Hambletonian the following year with Muscles Yankee and a record-extending sixth with Glidemaster in 2006 — but he still played a part as a voting member of the Society’s board.

“It was a board decision at the time,” Campbell said. “Tom proposed it and came up with the formula, then presented it to the board and it passed.

“I think he kept it simple enough, but at the same time, made it fair and relevant because everything’s weighted in the year of the race.”

In simplest terms, the formula assigns points to each contender in the eliminations based on earnings both as a 2-year-old, 3-year-old, and in their last five starts. Both the last five starts and 3-year-old earnings are weighted twice as much as what was made during a competitor’s 2-year-old season.

The conditions for the Hambletonian explain it this way, “For example, if a horse earned $100,000 as a 2-year-old and $200,000 as a 3-year-old and $150,000 in his last five starts, his assigned value would be $800,000 ($100,000 + (2 x $200,000) + (2 x $150,000) = $800,000). These earnings would be based on USTA official money earnings at the time of declaration.”

Once each of the 20 horses entered this year were assigned a point value by Hambletonian Society staking manager Nadia Tarnawa, she and Campbell went through the field and separated out the contenders. It’s no surprise that Karl and T C I both received an “A” ranking and were therefore split up.

“There are two divisions, so there are two As, two Bs, two Cs, two Ds and two Es,” Campbell said. “If there’s an entry, by trainer or owner, we switch a B for a B or a C for a C. And that’s the way we do it.

“And this was just a year when you have a horse like Highland Kismet, who didn’t win any money at 2; he still got ranked, but he wouldn’t be ranked as highly as what you maybe would have thought the way it works. And Sig Sauer, same thing. He comes back, he wins in 1:50, but he won all his money at 2.”

Although viewed by many as the third best in the division behind Karl and T C I, Highland Kismet’s point value did not reflect his perceived talent.

“He fell lower than his reputation is right now, put it that way,” Campbell said.

Once the top 10 horses are separated into their A through E pairs, a blind draw is used to separate them into their respective races. The remaining 10 horses are then drawn into the fields also employing a blind draw.

“Well, I know that one [field] looks tougher, but I can’t help that,” Campbell said. “I’m happy with the formula. It’s just the way it worked out this year based on the data that was presented to us.

“So again, data driven is not perfect, but it’s better than a random selection where they all could have gotten together.”

The first Hambletonian elimination (race 9) includes 4-5 morning-line favorite Karl (post 6), Highland Kismet (post 3, 3-1), and Dancer Memorial divisional champs Situationship (post 10, 9-2) and Sig Sauer (post 8, 8-1).

T C I’s trainer Ron Burke said he expected fewer horses to drop in, but is happy with where his colt landed.

“I think the three horses that everybody thought were the best [T C I, Highland Kismet and Karl] all didn’t race up to their expectations [in the Dancer on July 13],” Burke said. “I think it gave everybody, and rightfully so, hope.

“I think I got the better division and I’m fine with the rail. I don’t have any problems.”

T C I is the 2-1 favorite on the morning line from post 1 in the second Hambletonian elim (race 11). Also in that race are Zweig champ Dame Good Time (post 7, 3-1) and Secret Agent Man (post 3, 4-1), who won the Tompkins-Geers last weekend.

After the Dancer, Burke had said T C I did not feel like himself.

“That was the first time I’ve ever warmed him up where I wasn’t happy,” Burke said. “He wasn’t lame. He wasn’t anything. He was just eh. And usually when you warm him up, you’re like, ‘Wow, what a nice horse.’ [That night] I was like, eh.

“It was funny, I warmed Chapercraz up the next race; he was vicious and he went out and won and I wasn’t surprised because he warmed up like a horse that was ready to win.”

Burke trained T C I on Wednesday (July 24) and said he was better.

“The other day when he warmed up, he warmed up flat,” Burke said. “I wasn’t happy with him. I actually brought him home to my vet here and we did a complete physical and we found some things we didn’t know were going on with him.

“He came back [Wednesday] and trained very sharp, definitely better by far than he warmed up that night. So, I expect that he’ll be much better.”

Burke said the night of the Dancer, T C I wasn’t bad, he just wasn’t brisk.

“He was just like, one speed and that’s not him,” Burke said. “So, everybody [Wednesday] that saw him train, they were like, ‘Damn, he was good.’ And I’m like, ‘Yeah, much better.’

“And, I think honestly, if I can get him through this week I’ll have him totally ready for the final. Everything will be taken care of.”

Even though a horse only has to finish in the top five in each race to qualify for the Hambletonian final, don’t expect T C I just to be trying to qualify.

“So, being fifth isn’t in my DNA,” Burke said. “That ain’t my deal. We go to win. I don’t go to be fifth.

“And we’re going for $100,000, too. People forget, it’s not like we’re going for $3.”