Neither Karl nor T C I are still shoe-ins and Canadian invader Highland Kismet also has question marks.

by Brett Sturman

Following a shocking turn of events in both divisions of the Stanley Dancer Memorial this past weekend as part of the Meadowlands Pace undercard, I’d almost go so far as to use the word ‘dramatic’ as to how the Hambletonian picture has changed. What was viewed just days ago as a two-horse race or even a single-horse race, the viability for many different horses is now real with Hambletonian eliminations a week from Saturday (July 27).

Despite his loss in the Dancer, the first defeat of his season and just the second of his career, Karl remains squarely as the one to beat in the Hambletonian. At least for now though, the thought of him being simply unbeatable has been quelled.

Looking back now, you could have taken Karl’s win in the Reynolds at the end of June as a first sign of vulnerability. He went into that race following six-, four-, and seven-length margins of victory in his first three races of the year, but he won by only a length-and-a-half in the Reynolds. It’s difficult to know how hard he was being used late in that race, but longshot Bright Star thought well enough to angle from the pocket and third-place finisher French Kronos was right there as well and he’s not even staked to the Hambletonian. On Saturday (July 13), in the Dancer, Karl was beaten with an eighth-of-a-mile still to go and finished third.

Two races later, the second division of the Dancer figured to be a matchup between T C I and the upstart Goodtimes champion Highland Kismet, where the winner of the two would have been considered the most likely to rival Karl in the Hambletonian. With no real excuses for either, T C I could do no better than third and Highland Kismet finished last of all horses in the race that maintained their stride.

In sports betting odds, it would probably have been -20000 or even greater odds that Karl, T C I and Highland Kismet would finish neither first nor second in clean-run races. So, who exactly then has the door now been opened for?

One contender who has seen his stock rise in recent weeks is that of Situationship. Enough can’t be said of that miraculous second-place effort in the Yonkers Trot from his race prior, and Situationship delivered in the Dancer after being bet down all the way to 9-5 off a 10-1 morning line. Trained and driven by Svanstedt, he was able to two-move to the lead, fight against an unused T C I from three-quarters onward and narrowly but bravely fend off all comers to the end. He’s clearly trending in the right direction.

Another that will vault on everyone’s Hambletonian radar will be Sig Sauer. I still remember how powerful his 2-year-old career debut was here at The Meadowlands last year, and he was a winner on last year’s Hambletonian Day in the NJSS final. After racing evenly on June 29 for his first start since last September, he picked up cover of the would-be winner, actually gapped it a little bit in the stretch, but then came back on at the end to wind up paying $138 to win and $335.80 to place as Karl blew up the place pool. His winning time of 1:50 flat is a North American-best for 3-year-old trotters. That race could have been fluky or he could continue to get even better; who knows which one.

Security Protected is another that caught the eye in his Dancer division. The third best 2-year-old last year, he broke two back in the Yonkers Trot and then raced less than enthusiastically in the Zweig, but he seemed immensely better last weekend when he lacked room through the stretch right in behind Karl; raced encouragingly.

Others who come to mind that are within Hambletonian shouting distance include Secret Agent Man. Lightly tested thus far for Andy and Julie Miller, he was bet like a good thing when last seen a couple of weeks ago, in a nw2 race that he won in a fast time of 1:50.3. That race came two races after a big middle move in a race won by (non-Hambletonian eligible) Tony Adams S, who of course was powerful last weekend in the Dancer. Bright Star qualified to a win this past Friday and prior to that he did well for himself to trot not too far behind Karl; he’s overachieved in his first five starts this year. Caballero has actually been pretty honest in every race this year when he’s stayed flat, and he just missed springing the big upset in his Dancer division; still needs to show he can go a few ticks faster. Benny J put together an assertive 1:51.2 score early in last Saturday’s card over fellow 1:52 Hambletonian-eligible winners Bella’s Musclehill and Waterfall; seems to have improved steadily in recent weeks. Dame Good Time sprung the upset two back in the Zweig, capitalizing on the break from T C I. You don’t hear much on Smart Schooner but he battled to a pretty fast 1:53.2 win at Chester a week ago where the top two were miles clear of everyone else.

Current Sturman Hambletonian future odds:

Karl: 6-5

Situationship: 5-1

T C I: 6-1

Sig Sauer 8-1

Highland Kismet: 10-1

Security Protected: 12-1

Secret Agent Man: 20-1

Bright Star: 25-1

All other 3-year-olds: 10-1