A peek at the 2026 Hambletonian, and Oaks, too

by John Berry

The 2026 Hambletonian and Hambletonian Oaks are now just moments away and, as usual, here’s my yearly take on these two grand, historical events.

Several BDHC (Broken Down Horseplayer Club) members have appreciated my program morning lines over the years. My philosophy that “Hardly a man is now alive that paid his mortgage at 3-5,” have hit home with handicappers, so, since I have written volumes on this subject matter, they are included in this Harness Racing Update column.

Every morning-line maker has somewhat of a different opinion in creating their line but my lines reflect where I believe the money will flow in the win pool and not the horse that will cross the finish line first.

I am a stickler when it comes to the morning line and every track has their own “magic number” for its creation.

The win takeout at The Meadowlands is listed at 17 per cent and that makes the magic number for that track 120, since 17 per cent of 120 is 20.4, and 120 less 20.4 is 99.6 about the closest number a track can get to the net pool payout of 100 per cent on win wagers without going over that break even number for them.

An accurate morning line (M/L) must be able to be achieved on a tote board.

If it is not accurate — I’ve seen some M/L’s haphazardly made that range from a low of 80 to a high of 170 — they mislead the public because this can never be achieved on a tote board.

An accurate morning line is better for the bettor, especially the more novice guest that may only have interest in historical events, like the Hambletonian.

With that stated, my morning lines and comments are below and I wish everyone a wonderful and prosperous day taking in one of horse racing’s most stories events.

THE HAMBLETONIAN

Listed in handicap order with their post, my morning line, driver, and trainer:

7. 9-2 — Endurance — Andrew McCarthy — Christopher Beaver

Never saw the inside part of the racetrack and flushed out live cover on backside. Closed fastest of all in last (in either elimination) — :26.2 — and needed one more stride. Post actually prevented stretching winning streak to four. Quick pace could prove catalyst for the upset.

4. 7-5 — Big Ranger — Tim Tetrick — Anette Lorentzon

Heavy chalk in elimination. Left from post 8 grinding forward reaching the top three-eighths in, accelerated thereafter putting away serious challenge turning for home with a :26.3 finale putting no doubt at the wire.

3. 5-2 — Apex — Dexter Dunn — Marcus Melander

Very impressive journey grinding forward uncovered through :26.4 final panel and kept gnawing once straightened away. Held valiantly and the line came just-in-time. Lightly raced this season and very prominent.

10. 8-1 — American Power — James MacDonald — Marcus Melander

Left alertly and found great spot, took charge on backside, yielded to new leader just step or two prior to the half, prominent rest of the way in very decent effort. Was forced into leaving with 8 post last week to join the fray and, again, had to leave cozy pocket backside to avoid being shuffled.

9. 20-1 — Spencer Hanover — Jason Bartlett — Marcus Melander

Away unhurried in last week’s elimination, caught some live cover flow down the backside, fanned wide around tiring challenger, but very tough to dent :54.2 final half by a very sharp winner.

8. 20-1 — Magic Punk — Yannick Gingras — Ake Svanstedt

Went grinding forward from post 7 to take charge a stride or two past opening quarter, stayed in garden spot rest of the journey but just not quite up to denting winner’s sprint home, and, also, out-gamed for second by a nose. Was nice effort after tough miscue race before in Zweig. Does step up to top rung on the ladder.

2. 30-1 — It Could Be Worse — Scott Zeron — Linda Toscano

Used inside post to show the way to backside before yielding, got the famed Meadowlands Shuffle next half mile, found a bit or room to roam in lane to get second in tight photo. Shows a 1:50.3 win at Big M in Reynolds but in with the big boys here.

1. 30-1 — Minoan — Todd McCarthy — Noel Daley

Away OK but got severely shuffled and found himself in a tough spot turning for home as winner the winner sprinted away from field. Still, sharp late trot to earn spot in final. Likes the front end of things but, again, steps up to territory he hasn’t seen — except for last week where he was almost six lengths away.

5. 30-1 — Captain Naughty — Brett Beckwith — Per Engblom

Left alertly after breaker inside of him, settled in garden spot, got a bit of a shuffle rest of the way, and had good trot coming home. Still winless this semester — except for QUA win — but does step up to difficult task.

6. 20-1 — AI — Ronnie Wrenn, Jr. — Ron Burke

Left with alacrity in last, yielded on backside, kept up with foes throughout and safely qualified with decent effort. Hasn’t faced the likes of this caliber since Oak Grove where he was an “even-steven” fourth.

AE-1 — Requiem — Matthew Burkholder

Had tough assignment in Big Ranger elimination, was away near the back of the pack, out halfway through following some cover but couldn’t dent the top five though trotting home in :26.4. about a half-length away from fifth.

AE-2 — Highland Destiny — Nancy Takter

Was well back in seventh all the way around, was out at the third station drafting along and did close in :26.4 but hardly made a dent finishing two lengths back of fifth but, actually, had the fourth fastest closing kick in the mile.

HAMBLETONIAN OAKS

Listed in handicap order with their post, my morning line, driver, and trainer:

2. 5-2 — Nezuko Kamado S — Scott Zeron — Marcus Melander

Away in good order in fourth as rail horse made miscue leaving, pulled backside forcing hand — was careful not to lock up wheels turning for home while losing some ground and trotted final panel fastest of all and missed all the marbles by a neck.

7. 6-1 — Leading Lady — Matt Kakaley — Nancy Takter

Made miscue leaving last — the first one of her career — stayed out of everyone’s way, settled down, got rolling when they straightened away, roared home in :25.2 to miss the whole shebang by a neck.

6. 4-1 — Carve — Andrew McCarthy — Noel Daley

Left well and took early lead, yielded prior to opening panel, sat silent and patient on backside, snuck through inside with power to claim win easily, her last quarter in :26.1 (maybe a shade better). Seems much better when has cover as has been nailed in past when on the lead too early.

5. 10-1 — Lainey W — James MacDonald — Marcus Melander

Away well from post 2 in last, brushed from third to the top, drifted out a lane allowing eventual winner through on inside but held off another rival at wire by a neck. In the hunt here.

4. 5-1 — Setyoursightshigh — Dexter Dunn — Marcus Melander

Was away decently enough, took charge with sharp quarter move, escaped with brush to soft half in :58 and trotted final half in :55.1 to hold off menacing challenger by a neck. Owns three race winning streak coming in and has come back swinging after stopping cold at Oak Grove in big race there in May.

10. 10-1 — Madam Cheval — Tim Tetrick — Nancy Takter

Zipped off wings from post 7 in eliminations to take charge in soft opening panel of :28, yielded for garden trip about seven sixteenths in, held firm throughout but was out-brushed in the lane. First time in full flight when gate opened in last but can fashion final quarters in :26.2-:26.3 from off the pace.

9. 20-1 — Frattina Diablo S — Todd MacCarthy — Tony Alagna

Left alertly for the early lead in last, yielded but anxious to reclaim once straightened away on backside. Just out-gunned even though her last quarter was :26.4. Consistent sort is prominent on or off the pace.

1. 10-1 — Busy Miss Lissy S — Ake Svanstedt — Ake Svanstedt

Left along with a pair of others to her inside, caught “double-bubbled” an eighth into the mile before forging to the lead to take control through soft opening panel. Yielded after that, seemed to be in tight quarters turning for home after pulling from 2-hole around final bend. Careful not to lock wheels with foe and, once clear, trotted last half in :54.3 — best mile of career — in holding off the favorite.

5. 12-1 — Custom — Jason Bartlett — Per Engblom

Found really nice spot early on, tilted out around final bend, closed stoutly in :25.4 but actually was out-brushed by Leading Lady near the wire. Still, very credible effort. Took a little time off after winning Reynolds and was only used in final quarter and looked sharp in return, but so did others.

8. 25-1 — Storybook Love — Todd Ratchford — Matthew Bax

Longest shot in her field, trotted an “even-steven” mile home in :26.2 to miss third by a neck but safely held fourth to make the final on lifetime earnings as big 2-year-old year saved her.

AE-1 — Jailbird Jog — Jason McGinnis

Seemed to have the toughest journey of all outside the entire route and finished fourth in her elimination kicking home in :26.2 but missed the top three by three-quarters-of-a-length. A factor if she, somehow, draws in.

AE-2 — Islandgirl Hanover — Trond Smedshammer

Avoided two breakers early in her elimination, sat chilly in fifth until straightening away, had severe pace — :25.4 — in the lane to miss the final by a neck.

Enjoy the festivities.

May The Horse Be With You!