A shakeup in the driving colony has produced big payouts and an interesting dynamic at Northfield

The Noble Effect is having a profound impact in racing at the home of the flying turns.

by Brett Sturman

The last race conducted from this past Wednesday’s (Jan. 14) weather-shortened card at Northfield Park encapsulates the shape that racing has taken there early in the new year. Raced in the backdrop of a Northfield blizzard setting like the old days, here’s how that race went:

Top drivers Dan Noble and Aaron Merriman both had even-money contenders in the race, with Noble’s being the marginal favorite. After Noble brushed strongly from fourth to first for the lead, he was soon pressed by Merriman nearing the half-mile marker who kept on from a parked trip from an outside post. Unable to clear before the third turn, Merriman and Noble continued their battle down the backside where they sped away by close to five lengths from anyone else. But the duel got the better of both, and in the end the race was won by a horse with odds of 8-1 by a head over the 23-1 second finisher.

The injection of Noble into the Northfield Park driving colony since the closing months of last year has changed the racing dynamic and in the process will put a very serious threat for this year into Merriman’s streak as the top dash winner at the track.

Merriman has dominated at Northfield Park where he has been the leading driver in wins every year going back to 2016. In 2025, he won his ninth consecutive track driving title and was miles clear of anyone else. You could even add the wins together of the second- and third-ranked drivers and it still would be 48 wins shy of Merriman’s total of 578 wins at Northfield.

But times are changing, and fast.

Noble has been driving at Northfield on a full-time basis since the end of last September and has taken the track by storm since that time. It must be noted, too, that Noble’s more steady arrival at Northfield followed the conclusion of the Scioto Downs meet, where on that track’s final night he drove four different 1:47.2 or faster eye-catching winners.

Between that time and the end of the calendar year, Noble has bested Merriman. Noble won 188 times to Merriman’s 148 and in the process did so with 53 fewer starts. Through that period, where he won at a rate of 32 per cent, Noble’s UDR was 0.445. As part of that run, Noble had two separate record-tying cards of 10 wins.

Into 2026, those trends have accelerated dramatically. Through nine cards this new year including the shortened one from Wednesday, Noble has won 50 times from 123 starts, good for a UDR to 0.545, and an average of almost six wins every card.

At the same time, Merriman has begun the new year uncustomarily slow. He’s won just eight times from 107 starts, and for the time being sits in fourth in the driver standings behind not only Noble, but also Justin Irvine and Braiden Rhoades.

All of that said, the season is still in its infancy. Whether or not Noble can keep going at a 40 per cent win clip and continue to bring back flashbacks of Walter Case, Jr. from this track 25 years ago remains to be seen, but surely Merriman will wind up winning more than 7 per cent.

Coming back to the race example from the beginning of this column, what will continue to change is how the races are handicapped. Despite most times driving short-priced favorites, Noble is still close to producing a positive return on investment (ROI) for bettors. His ROI is currently at just -4 per cent, which isn’t bad at all for top catch drivers. On Wednesday, for example, one of Noble’s winners somehow paid $19. Last Sunday, Noble had a $22 winner too. Merriman, on the other hand, obviously still attracts a large share of wagering dollars but with only eight wins on the year thus far, his ROI is at -71 per cent.

What it all means is that even if Noble is winning six races a night and with Merriman off to a slower start, there could be decent opportunities for bettors in eight or nine of the other races throughout a given card. That’s been seen throughout the races in the first half of January where a plethora of longshots have continued to come in throughout every full card.

Here’s just some examples. Working backwards, the Jan. 13 card produced winners of $28, $25, and $23. The Jan. 11 card prior produced winners of $85, $60, $37, $23, and $22. And it goes onwards to every card this year where there hasn’t been a single completed night of racing that hasn’t produced at least a $20 or more winner.

It’s not impossible for other drivers to bring in the longer shots as well. Just the other night Ronnie Wrenn, Jr. brought home $20 and $30-type winners in the same card. Irvine has won with $30 and $60-type winners – ditto Kurt Sugg. Whose brought home the highest prices so far? Keith Kash, Jr. has produced winners of $99, $89, and $21 already this month, and the list goes on. Despite being a half-mile track, one thing you can’t say about Northfield is that the racing is dull – far from it.

The season is still brand new but it will be interesting to see if these observations are just short-term blips or the start of a larger, continuing trend. Between Noble, Merriman, and other hungry drivers right in the mix of things, racing at Northfield is a solid product right now.